547
AWUS01 KWNH 060808
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0573
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060805Z - 061300Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms expanding
in coverage over northeast PA may pose some localized flash
flooding concerns early this morning as this activity advances off
to the northeast across southeast NY, northern NJ and eventually
areas of southern New England.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cluster of cooling convective tops associated with expanding areas
of showers and thunderstorms across northeast PA. This is being
facilitated by the arrival of a weak MCV crossing the northern
Mid-Atlantic region and interaction with a very moist and
moderately unstable airmass.

Generally the greatest instability is situated over southeast PA,
but there is a nose of MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg nosed up
across northeast PA and into southeast NY and adjacent areas of
southern New England. Meanwhile, PWs are on the order of 1.8 to
2.2 inches based on some of the recent GPS-derived PW data and the
NESDIS Blended TPW product.

A combination of subtle vort energy/forcing with the MCV along
with some modest orographic ascent/upslope flow in vicinity of the
Poconos and the corridor of moderately strong thermodynamics will
likely favor the current cluster of convection maintaining itself
as it advances off to the northeast over the next few hours.
Gradually some of this convection will cross through areas of
southeast NY and some portions of southern New England going
through the early morning hours.

Rainfall rates may reach upwards of 1.5"/hour and there may be
some localized storm totals of 2 to 3 inches where any of the
cells repeat over the same area. A localized concern for some
flash flooding will exist as these storms cross the region early
this morning.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42687359 42557279 42047254 41297346 40857464
            40987545 41457565 42127490