661
AWUS01 KWNH 060037
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0570
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060036Z - 060500Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding threat continues across eastern
New Mexico and far west Texas as storms redevelop along the dry
line.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms causing rainfall rates
as high as 2 inches per hour continue to redevelop across eastern
New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. The storms have
largely produced flash flooding through the afternoon where they
happened to form or move over preexisting burn scars. With
instability across New Mexico exceeding 2,000 J/kg in some places
with PWATs around 1 inch, the storms have proven capable of those
very high rainfall rates considering the desert environment of
eastern New Mexico.

CAMs guidance that depicts some of the convection (though none
show the much more scattered nature of the storms as much as are
ongoing at the present time) suggest the storms will begin to
merge with each other, particularly the cluster over east central
NM over the next few hours. Cell mergers could very well prolong
the heavy rainfall rates over the area where the storms merge,
resulting in a localized flash flooding threat, which may be
significant depending on the land characteristics under the
storms. Elsewhere, the storms continue to threaten recent burn
scars which alone greatly increase the potential for flash
flooding locally. The guidance has a poor handling on the storms
in far west Texas just east of El Paso, but with rates in the
stronger cells approaching 1.5 inches per hour, and FFGs in
southern Hudspeth County around that level, continued southward
movement of the stronger storms could pose a flash flooding threat
near the Rio Grande and I-10 in that area as well over the next
few hours.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37250438 37170358 36270334 35050340 33160398
            32070452 31290520 31020557 31690640 32080629
            32230619 32400592 33470558 34880543 36220501
            37080491