209
FXUS64 KMOB 031749
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Scattered to locally numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the area today. Local reductions to ceilings
and visibilities have occurred near this activity and will
continue through the remainder of the afternoon. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions prevail. Another round of low stratus/
patchy fog will likely reduce ceilings to MVFR thresholds or
lower over inland areas again early Thursday morning.
Southeasterly to southerly winds around 5-10 knots today become
light overnight. /14

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to stretch from the
Lower Mississippi Valley and through the north central Gulf Coast
region and southeastern U.S. early this morning. A weak surface
trough axis extends from far southern portions of Louisiana and
along the coastal interface of Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle early this morning where precipitable water values are up
to around 2.3 inches per GOES TPW imagery. Scattered to numerous
rain showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms have developed
from the northern Gulf into southern portions of our forecast area
overnight in association with the deeper moisture and weak
isentropic ascent in the vicinity of the boundary.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant
weather feature across the Deep South through the Independence Day
holiday. Hot and very humid conditions will continue to bring heat
related concerns to our forecast area through Thursday afternoon.
Actual high temperature readings may end up being a few degrees
lower than yesterday, but we still expect highs to range between 90-
95 degrees across most of our area. Surface dewpoints will remain
quite high in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees today, which should
result in maximum heat index values ranging between 105-110 degrees
over much of the region. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for all
of our CWA from 10 am to 7 pm. Deep moisture will remain embedded
across our area underneath the ridge axis today, with precipitable
water values continuing to average between 2.0 and 2.3 inches.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be most prolific near
the coast through the early morning hours before gradually spreading
inland later this morning and into this afternoon. Rain chances
should remain quite high today and will maintain POPs between 60-70%
over most of our region. Some storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall and a few spots could pick up a quick 1-2"+
of rain in a short period of time. We may need to monitor for very
localized minor flooding. A few storms may linger into the early to
mid evening hours before gradually diminishing in coverage. Another
batch of isolated to scattered showers/storms could re-develop near
the coast again late tonight into early Thursday morning.

A similar scenario is expected for the Independence Day holiday.
Upper ridging will continue to stretch across our region and expect
another hot and humid day across our region underneath this feature.
Highs once again reach into the lower to mid 90s inland and around
90 along the coast. Maximum heat index readings once again look to
top out around 110 degrees, so we have issued another Heat Advisory
for the forecast area again from 10 am to 7 pm Thursday. Another
round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should once
again develop and spread inland through the day. The rip current
risk looks to remain low across area beaches through Thursday
afternoon. Long period swell associated with Beryl will bring a ramp
up in the rip current risk Friday through the weekend. More details
are provided below. /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The upper-level ridge which has been over the Deep South through
much of the week is expected to flatten and push to the east
through the weekend as an upper trough swings into the Great Lakes
region. As the ridge becomes situated over northeast
Florida/southeast Georgia, upper-level flow will become southerly
to southwesterly across our local region, and a few embedded
shortwave impulses look to move within this newly established flow
through the period. At the surface, a frontal boundary is still
expected to move into portions of northern Alabama/Mississippi on
Saturday, however, it should stall to the north of our CWA and
linger in place through early next week. Over our area, high
pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control, allowing
for the typical land/seabreeze circulation to develop each day
and become the dominant surface feature at play.

Looking at rain chances, confidence is beginning to increase that
we will see higher convective coverage across the area each day
during the extended term period. Convection will likely follow a
typical diurnal pattern, with scattered showers and storms
expected during the morning (mainly along coastal counties and
over the marine zones), followed by numerous storms developing
during the afternoon (mainly over inland areas). At this time,
Friday and Saturday are starting to look to be our wettest days of
the period. The reason for this uptick is due to the approach of
the aforementioned frontal boundary which will stall to our
north, as well as an initial shortwave moving overhead. Ongoing
storms along the front will help to send outflow into the local
area. Once this outflow begins interacting with the seabreeze
boundary underneath the shortwave aloft, this should help to
ignite numerous thunderstorms across the area. Decided to cap rain
chances at 50-70 percent on Friday and 70 percent areawide on
Saturday. There are still some questions regarding the overall
strength/influence of the ridge (especially on Friday), which is
why I am hesitant to include the NBM`s suggested categorical PoPs
at this time. We will continue to tweak rain chances over
subsequent forecast updates. Rain chances remain rather elevated
(around 50-60 percent) through the remainder of the period. As is
the case with summertime pulse-type convection, although severe
storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the
stronger storms that manage to develop.

With the upward trend in rain chances, the overall temperature/heat
index forecast is becoming a bit more complicated. Areas that see a
later start to convective initiation will likely see their highs
reach the low to mid 90s. Dew points will also remain in the mid to
upper 70s, which will lead to heat indices in the 105 to 112 degree
range, ultimately resulting in the need for continued Heat Advisory
issuances. However, if we see storms fire earlier than anticipated
and become more widespread in coverage, then it may be difficult for
some areas to actually reach these values. All in all, this
uncertainty is leading to a lower confidence temperature forecast,
which will become further refined over the coming days. /96

BEACH Hazards...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2024

A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place through the 4th of
July holiday, however, the rip current risk looks to increase by
Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend. This is due
to the approach of a long period swell (on the order of 15-17
seconds) caused by Hurricane Beryl as it moves into the western
Caribbean and eventually into the southwestern Gulf. In addition
to the rip current risk, this swell will likely lead to
increasing surf conditions, beach erosion problems, and wave run-
up issues at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable
spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by
Friday into Saturday. We still have plenty of time to watch the
trends over the coming days, but next weekend has the potential to
be very dangerous at the local beaches. Based on next weekend
having lots of additional visitors around the holiday, we want to
continue to stress this potential. DS/12 /96



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  93  77  93  77  92  76  92 /  20  60  10  50  30  70  40  60
Pensacola   78  92  79  91  79  92  78  92 /  20  50  10  50  20  60  40  60
Destin      80  90  80  90  81  91  80  91 /  20  50  20  40  20  60  40  60
Evergreen   74  96  76  94  75  94  74  93 /  20  60  10  70  30  70  30  60
Waynesboro  75  94  75  93  75  92  73  93 /  20  60  10  70  40  70  20  60
Camden      75  95  75  93  75  93  73  93 /  20  50  10  70  40  70  20  50
Crestview   74  95  75  94  75  95  74  95 /  20  60  10  50  20  70  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob