567
FXUS64 KMOB 011757
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1257 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours. A
stray thunderstorm over far western FL is not out of the question,
but is low enough likelihood to not mention in TAF.  Light
variable winds this afternoon, becoming more westerly this
evening, and then light southeasterly late tonight and Tuesday.
[Schlotz/LIX]


&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The overall weather pattern remains rather persistent through the
entire extended term period. Looking aloft, an expansive upper
ridge centered over the Tennessee River Valley at the start of the
period will gradually shift east through the week, reaching the
western Atlantic by Sunday. At the surface, with the lack of any
notable surface features entering or affecting our area, it is
safe to assume that the typical summertime land/seabreeze
circulation will likely be the driving force each day. This will
help to initiate isolated to scattered showers and storms each
morning along our coastal counties and our local marine zones. As
the seabreeze marches inland during the afternoon, scattered
pulse-type thunderstorms can be expected each day (PoPs generally
around 30 to 50 percent). As is the case with this typical
summertime convection, although severe storms are generally not
expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will
be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to
develop. Otherwise, it will be hot thanks to the close proximity
of the ridge. Highs will generally be in the low 90s along the
coast and the mid 90s inland (localized interior areas could even
reach the upper 90s). With dew points likely to remain in the mid
to upper 70s, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 105 to
112 degree range each day prior to the onset of thunderstorms.
Therefore, we will likely have multiple days of heat advisories
across much of the area. Lows will not provide much relief,
further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area...
temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper
70s, with low 80s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents will
be in place for Wednesday and the 4th of July holiday, however,
as the previous shift mentioned, the rip current risk looks to
increase by Friday and especially into the post-holiday weekend.
This will likely be a result of long period swell reaching our
local beaches in association with Beryl as it enters the Bay of
Campeche by the weekend. We will monitor this potential, as well
as possible increases in surf and wave run-up issues, over the
coming days. /96



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  93  77  92  76  93  76  94 /  20  60  30  50  10  40   0  30
Pensacola   79  89  79  90  78  92  79  93 /  30  60  30  50  10  40  10  30
Destin      80  89  80  90  80  91  81  92 /  40  70  20  50  20  30  10  30
Evergreen   74  92  75  94  74  95  75  96 /  10  60  20  60  10  50  10  40
Waynesboro  71  97  75  94  74  96  75  97 /   0  40  10  60  10  30   0  40
Camden      72  92  75  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  50  10  50  10  40  10  40
Crestview   76  92  75  94  74  96  75  96 /  30  60  20  60  10  50   0  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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