283
FXUS64 KMOB 071800
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will continue across the area this afternoon with
scattered showers and storms developing over the next couple of
hours. Storms will predominantly be north of I-10 and likely avoid
TAF locations this afternoon and evening. Temporary reductions in
ceilings and visibilities will be possible with the strongest of
storms. Winds will be light out of the south becoming light and
variable overnight. BB/03

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Our Summer time pattern continues with the expectation of
scattered to perhaps locally numerous showers and storms once
again this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Primary hazards with
storms remains potential for locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. PWATs remain high around 2 inches today which should
promote heavy downpours and potential for localized nuisance
flooding in urban or poor drainage areas. Temperatures will be hot
once again, with highs in the middle 90`s for most locations both
days. Afternoon mixing should allow for the interior portions of
the forecast area to have lower afternoon dewpoints which should
help keep heat index values below advisory criteria between 100
and 106 degrees. Nearer the coast of AL and the Florida panhandle
dewpoints should stay relatively high despite mixing owing to the
current onshore flow which should allow for heat index values to
rise to the 105 to 110 range. Given this, I have went ahead with a
heat advisory for the coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle. Monday should have slightly lower afternoon dewpoints
and most of the area will likely remain below advisory criteria.

A high risk of rip currents remains in place through tonight owing
to the continued long period swell and onshore flow at our AL/FL
beaches. Swell period gradually wanes into tonight and should allow
for rip currents to diminish somewhat tonight into Monday.
Given this, we will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents for the
day Monday. Increasing onshore flow will likely necessitate another
high risk of rip currents as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday.
MM/25



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  93  78  91  77  92  76  93 /  20  60  30  70  30  50  30  40
Pensacola   81  92  80  91  80  91  78  92 /  20  60  40  70  40  50  30  40
Destin      82  90  81  90  81  90  80  92 /  20  60  40  70  30  60  30  40
Evergreen   74  93  74  92  74  93  73  95 /  40  60  10  70  20  40  10  30
Waynesboro  74  96  74  92  74  93  72  94 /  30  60  10  70  20  30  10  30
Camden      74  96  74  92  74  92  72  94 /  40  60  20  70  20  30  10  30
Crestview   77  94  75  92  75  93  74  94 /  30  60  20  70  20  50  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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