977
FXUS64 KMOB 072104
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
404 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

It appears that the outflow and subsidence from Tropical Storm
Beryl has thrown a monkey wrench into our forecast. Storms have
been struggling this afternoon and as a result the heat has taken
over the area. Heat indices across the area this afternoon have
been ranging around 108 to 110 area wide and relief might be
limited. Why are storms struggling so much you ask? Well it has to
do with Beryl and the heat being released as it intensifies. Much
like a car engine, hurricanes release heat into the upper
atmosphere leading to sinking motion. Well the current pattern
supports the heat from Beryl getting dumped on top of us leading
to net sinking across our area. This has resulted in drier than
forecasted conditions and hotter than forecast conditions. This is
expected to continue tomorrow as Beryl will make landfall in
eastern Texas sometime late tonight into early Monday morning. As
a result, we reduced storm chances for tomorrow to more scattered
storms across the area. Do not expect relief from the heat just
yet as with lower rain chances and cloud cover will likely result
in yet another day of heat indices ranging around 108 to 110. A
new heat advisory will likely be needed for tomorrow.

Beach observations this afternoon have noted that the swell from
Beryl just does not seem to be performing as previously expected.
As a result, we have lowered the rip current risk to Moderate
through Monday. However, we do expect another packet from Beryl to
arrive sometime late Monday into Tuesday which will result in the
rip current risk increasing once again. BB/03


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Temporary relief from the heat might be around the corner. When we
say relief from the heat we mean normal summer so don`t expect
some giant cooldown it just won`t be unbearably hot. Tuesday will
likely be the most active day of the week as moisture associated
with the remnants of Beryl gets tied up in a shortwave trough
progressing across the Ohio Valley. This will allow for enough
lift to support widespread showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon. With the increased moisture leading to PWATs ranging
around 2.25 to 2.5 inches, heavy rainfall will likely be the
primary threat any storms. The upper trough will progress
eastward on Wednesday and will push a rather weak surface trough
through the area. This will result in slightly drier conditions as
high pressure develops to our northwest. Expect a more typical
summertime period with scattered showers and storms developing
offshore during the morning then eventually developing along the
seabreeze during the afternoon. With a drier northwesterly flow,
dewpoints will drop into the lower 70s which will help keep heat
indices in the 100 to 105 range Through Saturday. Heat will then
begin to build Sunday into early next week as the ridge slowly
drifts eastward. BB/03



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A light southwest to westerly flow pattern will become
southeasterly on Monday. Moderate southwesterly to westerly flow
then prevails by mid to late week. Tropical Storm Beryl continues
over the warm waters of the southwest Gulf and is expected to
regain hurricane strength before coming ashore the central Texas
coast Monday morning. Long period swell, associated with Beryl,
will be common through Monday. BB/03



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  93  78  90  76  91  75  92 /  10  40  30  90  30  50  20  40
Pensacola   79  92  80  90  79  91  77  91 /  10  40  40  90  40  60  30  40
Destin      81  91  81  89  81  89  79  91 /  10  50  40  80  40  60  20  40
Evergreen   74  96  74  91  74  92  72  93 /  30  40  10  80  10  40  10  30
Waynesboro  74  97  75  92  73  93  71  94 /  30  30  10  80  10  30  10  30
Camden      75  96  75  93  74  92  71  93 /  30  40  10  80  10  30   0  20
Crestview   75  96  75  91  76  93  73  93 /  10  50  20  90  30  50  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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