215
FXUS64 KMOB 101913
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A weak frontal boundary remains draped just off the Gulf Coast,
where earlier showers and thunderstorms have dissipated. Isolated
showers will remain possible south of I-10 through the afternoon
hours, but most of the activity is expected to remain offshore and
chances are relatively low. North of I-10, drier air has filtered in
behind the boundary as high pressure builds southward. This will
keep rain chances minimal, with clouds slowly eroding through the
afternoon hours. Given the slower warm up due to the clouds,
temperatures will be a bit more mild today, as highs warm into the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

The surface boundary will remain in the vicinity through the end of
the period, with a similar trend in rain chances through Thursday.
Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop during
the predawn hours on Thursday, mainly south of I-10, with showers
and thunderstorms dissipating in the afternoon as a shortwave lifts
northeast of the area. After a mild overnight period, with lows
falling into the low to mid 70s, highs on Thursday will climb into
the upper 80s to lower 90s once again. /73

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The forecast area will remain on the periphery of a mid level trough
moving through the Ohio and TN Valleys and mid level ridging to our
southeast. Several shortwaves are expected to move through the
southwest flow aloft, with moisture continually filtering into the
region. This will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast
through Friday, with the better chances along our southern areas.
The trough will weaken over the weekend as it moves eastward, while
high pressure builds at the surface and aloft. Diurnally driven
thunderstorms will remain possible through the middle part of next
week, with the highest coverage in the afternoon. Temperatures
through the period will be seasonably warm, with highs each
afternoon warming into the lower to mid 90s, and overnight lows
falling into the lower 70s over our interior counties to upper 70s
along the coast. Excessive heat will become a concern towards the
latter half of the weekend, as heat indices approach 110 degrees and
overnight lows remain above 75 degrees. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow
prevails through tonight. Light westerly to southwesterly winds
return on Thursday and will generally persist through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  92  75  94  76  96  75  97 /  10  50  10  40  10  40  10  40
Pensacola   77  92  77  93  78  94  78  94 /  20  50  20  40  10  40  10  40
Destin      79  92  79  93  80  93  80  93 /  30  30  20  30  10  30  10  40
Evergreen   71  94  71  96  72  97  73  97 /   0  20   0  20   0  20  10  30
Waynesboro  71  95  72  97  73  98  73  98 /   0  20   0  20   0  20  10  30
Camden      69  94  70  96  72  97  73  97 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  30
Crestview   72  95  72  97  74  97  74  97 /  10  30  10  30  10  30  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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