Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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342 FXUS64 KMOB 041030 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A persistence forecast continues through the end of the week with both dangerous heat and high rain chances continuing to headline the forecast. Dangerous rip currents will become likely along area beaches Friday through the weekend. We will also be monitoring for potential for wave runup, beach erosion, and perhaps some flooding along vulnerable lower lying coastal locations as long period swell associated with distant Hurricane Beryl arrives late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch across the Deep South through Friday afternoon. Hot and very humid conditions will persist across our forecast area underneath this feature through the end of the week. Afternoon high temperatures should generally range between 90-95 degrees today and Friday, but dewpoints holding in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees will continue to result in maximum heat index readings between 105-110 degrees over much of our region both days. A Heat Advisory remains in effect between 10 am and 7 pm today and another could become necessary again on Friday. Those spending time outdoors during the hottest part of the day should take precautions from the heat by drinking plenty of fluids, wearing light colored, loose fitting clothing, and taking frequent breaks. A very moist airmass will remain entrenched across our forecast area underneath the ridge axis through Friday afternoon, with precipitable water values continuing to average between 2-2.4 inches. Scattered to locally numerous showers and a few thunderstorms initially developing near the coast during the early morning hours should gradually develop further inland through the day today. Rain chances will remain high between 50-70 percent. Convective coverage should dwindle during the evening before the pattern resets tonight into Friday. The coverage of showers and storms may trend higher by Friday afternoon as a weak surface trough axis/boundary slips southward into interior portions of southeast MS/southwest AL. POPs by Friday afternoon will range between 60-80 percent across our region. Some storms will have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall given the very moist environment and relatively slow storm motions and a few locations could easily receive in excess of 2-3"+ of rain in a fairly short period of time. We will need to monitor storm trends for potential localized flooding. The increased convective coverage could impact the longevity of high heat index readings on Friday, so confidence was low enough to preclude extending the Heat Advisory into Friday with this package. /21 .BEACH HAZARDS... The rip current risk will remain LOW along area beaches today and tonight. We still expect that the rip current risk will ramp up considerably during the day Friday and into the holiday weekend as long period swell (on the order of 15-17 seconds) associated with distant Hurricane Beryl shoots north through the Yucatan Channel as the hurricane moves into the western Caribbean Sea and eventually into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This swell packet still looks to reach the northern Gulf coast by late Friday morning. The combination of the high period swell and large tidal ranges with tide outgoing during the afternoon/evening will favor the development of dangerous rip currents Friday through the weekend. We now have a HIGH rip current risk in place along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches Friday through Sunday night. The swell packet will also likely lead to increasing surf conditions Friday through Sunday, with beach erosion problems and wave run-up issues at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by Friday into Saturday. Some salt water flooding of these areas is possible, and although tide levels are not expected to be significantly above normal along our coast, we will likely issue Coastal Flood Advisory later today to highlight this potential for the normally vulnerable areas. We still have some time to watch the trends, and make adjustments as need, but do want to note that late this week and over the weekend could potentially be very dangerous at the local beaches. Based on this weekend having lots of additional visitors to the area around the holiday, we want to continue to stress the potential for dangerous rip currents and wave conditions. 21/12 && .SHORT and LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Weak upper ridging remains in place across the forecast area this weekend and strengthens somewhat as we head into the early to middle part of next week. Without any appreciable upper level features evident on forecast guidance, expect your typical Summer time weather with showers and storms offshore and/or along the immediate coast in the morning gradually spreading inland by late morning through early evening each day. Any given day won`t be a washout, but expect scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, particularly mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will remain very warm with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70`s inland with upper 70`s to lower 80`s near the coast. Highs will generally stay in the lower to middle 90`s each day. Heat index values will likely be near or above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the period and heat advisories may be needed on any given day, particularly if convective coverage trends lower. Additionally, please refer to the beach hazards section above for details on the potential for dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding concerns as we head into the weekend. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A light southerly to southwesterly flow pattern will prevail through the remainder of the week. A long period swell associated with Hurricane Beryl will arrive into the marine area Friday and persist into Saturday before gradually subsiding late this weekend. Locally higher winds/waves will remain possible near showers and storms that develop through the weekend. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 76 92 78 93 76 93 77 / 60 20 70 40 70 20 60 30 Pensacola 91 79 91 78 93 77 92 79 / 50 20 60 30 70 30 60 40 Destin 90 81 90 80 92 80 91 80 / 50 10 60 30 70 30 60 40 Evergreen 93 74 93 74 93 73 94 73 / 60 20 80 40 70 20 50 20 Waynesboro 92 75 91 73 92 71 94 74 / 60 20 80 40 60 10 40 20 Camden 93 75 93 73 93 71 94 73 / 50 20 80 40 70 20 40 20 Crestview 94 75 95 75 94 74 94 74 / 60 10 70 30 70 20 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob