Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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074 FXUS64 KMOB 050455 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1154 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Some patches of fog will be possible overnight, and MVFR conditions will be possible with showers and storms which will have the best coverage during Friday afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5 to 10 knots on Friday. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ UPDATE... Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Current convection over the area is steadily diminishing, so have updated to just have slight chance pops early this evening then dry conditions follow for much of the remainder of the night. The only exception will be for generally small rain chances to return to part of the coastal areas during the early morning hours. Made other minor changes. /29 ..New AVIATION... AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Spotty convection diminishes and ends early this evening leaving dry conditions for much of the remainder of the night except for some convection developing near the coast in the early morning hours. Showers and storms become likely across the area on Friday. VFR conditions generally prevail except for MVFR conditions with the stronger storms and also for some patchy late night fog. Light southerly or southwesterly winds become light and variable overnight, then a southerly flow at 5 to 10 knots develops on Friday. /29 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A persistence forecast continues through Friday. Continued hot and muggy conditions with scattered to numerous diurnal showers and storms through Friday. Dangerous rip currents will become likely along area beaches Friday and continue through the weekend. We will also be monitoring for potential for wave runup, beach erosion, and perhaps some flooding along vulnerable lower lying coastal locations as long period swell associated with distant Hurricane Beryl arrives along the northern Gulf coast beaches Friday morning into Friday afternoon. These beach hazards will persist into the weekend. We already have highlighted a HIGH Risk of rip currents along the AL and northwest FL beaches beginning Friday, and we will be issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory later today for the potential of some salt water flooding due to wave run-up issues at some of our especially problematic at vulnerable spots along our Gulf front beaches. While coastal flooding in the general sense, due to above normal tides, is not expected there could be some run-up issues that cause some problems at a few of our more vulnerable areas, i.e. the west end of Dauphin Island and around the Fort Pickens area. A more detailed discussion of this is included in a special BEACH HAZARD section that we have added to this Discussion. Otherwise, an upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch across the Deep South through Friday afternoon. Hot and very humid conditions will persist across our forecast area underneath this feature through the end of the week. Afternoon high temperatures on Friday should again generally range between 90-95 degrees, with dewpoints holding in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. This will continue to result in maximum heat index readings between 105-110 degrees over much of our region again on Friday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today until 7 pm and we plan on issuing another heat Advisory for our entire forecast area on Friday with this afternoon`s forecast package. A very moist airmass will remain entrenched across our forecast area underneath the ridge axis through Friday afternoon, with precipitable water values continuing to average between 2-2.4 inches. Scattered to locally numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected. Lingering convection this evening will end, but more showers and storms will likely regenerate near the coast and over the Gulf late tonight, and then become more numerous over inland areas again on Friday afternoon (generally again in the 50 to 60 percent range). There is some question as to coverage of precip on Friday as a weak surface trough axis/boundary slips southward into interior portions of southeast MS/southwest AL, and PoPs may turn out to need to be a little higher, so we will monitor model trends on this. No severe weather is anticipated, although the regular, isolated strong storm can`t be ruled out. As has been the case over the past few days, the storms will continue to be relatively slow movers as well, so localized heavy rainfall and the potential for some minor localized flooding will be present. DS/12 BEACH HAZARDS... We still expect that the rip current risk will ramp up considerably during the day Friday and into the holiday weekend as long period swell (on the order of 15-17 seconds) associated with distant Hurricane Beryl shoots north through the Yucatan Channel as the hurricane moves into the western Caribbean Sea and eventually into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This swell packet still looks to reach the northern Gulf coast by late Friday morning. The combination of the high period swell and large tidal ranges with tide outgoing during the afternoon/evening will favor the development of dangerous rip currents Friday through the weekend. We now have a HIGH rip current risk in place along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches Friday through Sunday night. The arrival of the swell packet will also likely lead to increasing beach erosion problems and possible wave run-up issues at the Gulf front beaches (especially problematic and vulnerable areas like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens) by midday Friday into Saturday night. Some localized minor salt water flooding of these areas could be possible, and although tide levels are not expected to be significantly above normal along our coast and NO coastal flooding in the general sense (due to above normal tides) is expected, the wave run-up issues could cause some problems at the vulnerable areas noted above. With this, we have issued a precautionary Coastal Flood Advisory to highlight this potential for the normally vulnerable areas noted. DS/12 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Weak upper level ridging remains centered over the eastern Gulf through the weekend as an upper trough lingers over the central US. A weak surface front will push into northern portions of Alabama and Mississippi over the weekend before stalling. Plenty of moisture will be in place through the weekend with PWATs around 2-2.5 inches. This pattern will continue to support daily chances for showers and storms with convection following a typical diurnal pattern. As we head into early next week, the upper ridging will begin to strengthen somewhat. Moisture will still remain entrenched underneath the ridge so we`ll continue to see summer time storms into early next week with coverage remaining mostly scattered to perhaps locally numerous at times. Conditions will remain very warm and humid through the period with high temperatures rising into the lower and middle 90s each day. Heat index values will likely be near or above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the period and heat advisories may be needed on any given day, particularly if convective coverage trends lower. Overnight lows won`t provide much relief with values dropping only into the lower to middle 70`s inland with upper 70`s to lower 80`s near the coast. Please refer to the beach hazards section above for details on the potential for dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding concerns as we head into the weekend. /14 MARINE... Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 MARINE...A light southwest to west flow pattern will prevail through the holiday weekend. Long period swells associated with distant Hurricane Beryl will arrive into the marine area on Friday and persist into the weekend. Winds and seas will be locally higher near scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise no hazards to small craft are expected. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 92 76 92 76 92 76 92 / 10 70 40 70 30 60 30 60 Pensacola 79 92 78 91 78 92 78 91 / 10 70 40 60 40 70 40 70 Destin 80 91 80 91 80 91 80 90 / 10 60 40 60 40 70 40 60 Evergreen 75 94 74 93 73 93 73 92 / 10 60 50 70 20 70 30 70 Waynesboro 75 93 73 91 73 92 73 94 / 10 70 50 60 10 60 20 60 Camden 74 94 73 91 72 92 72 92 / 10 60 60 60 20 50 30 70 Crestview 75 94 75 94 74 94 73 93 / 10 70 30 70 30 70 30 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266. High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob