Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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239 FXUS64 KMOB 052335 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 635 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Typical summertime evening when abundant instability and moisture results in tsra at the start of the 00Z cycle with main hazard being vsby reducing heavy rainfall. Wind gusts have generally been 20kts or less. Radar shows clusters of tsra sinking southward over the coastal counties. Expect intensity to decrease this evening and coverage to scatter out, leaving primarily light to calm winds and higher based clouds by and after 06.03Z. /10 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 An active summertime pattern will continue through the night and into the day on Saturday. The main player at the surface is a weak surface trough/boundary that is expected to slowly drift towards the I-65 corridor on Saturday from the Northwest. For the remainder of today and into the overnight we expect this cluster of storms along the highway 84 corridor to slowly drift towards the coast and slowly dissipating as they approach. Storms should push more offshore overnight along the typical land breeze circulation. Saturday will be mostly a rinse and repeat of today with mid-morning storms along the nearshore coastal waters and along the immediate coast transitioning to inland during the afternoon as the boundary slowly moves into the area and the seabreeze moves northward. The main threats could be a locally damaging wind gust and heavy rainfall with the strongest of storms. Given the rather deep moisture in place, dewpoints will remain in the upper 70s throughout the day leading to heat indices in the 106 to 109 range especially along and east of I-65. Storms west of I-65 will likely limit how hot it gets and as a result the new heat advisory is focused along and east of I-65. Rip currents are expected to be an issue across area beaches. The reason for this is a rather long period swell from Hurricane Beryl. The energy a wave posses is proportional to its height and period, thus the longer the period the more energy the wave posses. So in this case, only a 2 foot wave will posses a lot more energy because the wave period is so large. More energy going one way means it has to rush back out to sea with just as much energy (energy is neither created nor destroyed) thus rip currents will likely increase despite relatively small waves. This creates a dangerous recipe for people being tricked into a false sense of security. Be sure to use caution at the beaches this weekend. Some minor coastal flooding could also be possible for the same reasons stated above. Waves might not be that big but they will pack some energy which will help push waves further up the beach and could lead to minor overwash in the typical flood prone areas. BB/03 LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A weak front will sink into the area on Saturday and gradually wash out through Monday. Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging will remain over the area through midweek. The combination of the weak boundary, plenty of deep layer moisture and daytime heating will lead to daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms will start near the coast in morning and spread inland through the afternoon hours. The upper ridge builds into midweek with rain chances dropping back into the 30-40% range. Temperatures will remain very warm with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s inland with upper 70s to lower 80s near the coast. Highs will generally stay in the lower to middle 90s each day. Heat index values will likely be near or above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the period and heat advisories may be needed on any given day, particularly if convective coverage trends lower. /13 MARINE... Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A light southerly flow will continue through the weekend as larger period swell from Beryl moves into the marine waters. Increased waves from Beryl will arrive by the beginning of next week and winds will become more westerly by mid-week. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 92 76 92 76 91 76 91 / 60 80 30 60 20 60 30 70 Pensacola 78 92 78 91 78 91 79 91 / 50 70 40 60 30 60 40 70 Destin 80 91 81 91 80 90 81 91 / 50 70 40 60 30 60 30 70 Evergreen 74 93 74 93 73 92 74 91 / 60 80 40 60 40 60 20 70 Waynesboro 73 92 73 93 73 93 73 91 / 50 70 20 60 20 60 20 70 Camden 74 92 73 92 73 91 72 91 / 50 80 30 60 30 60 20 70 Crestview 75 94 75 95 73 93 74 94 / 50 70 30 60 30 60 20 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060- 261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob