505
FXUS64 KMOB 060448
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1148 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A front stalls short of the coast Saturday with scattered to
numerous shra/tsra developing during the day, lowering cigs to
between 1.5 and 3.5 kft and bringing periods of reduced vsby. At
times, locally +RA may restrict vsby to IFR/perhaps LIFR
categories. Brief gusty winds in and near convection will bring
impacts to approaches/departures. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/

..New UPDATE...

UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A numerous coverage of afternoon convection that carried over
into the evening has diminished considerably with only a few pockets
of light radar returns/light showers remaining on the scope.
Considering these trends, have lowered PoPs through the remainder of
the evening. Latest 06.00Z upper air maps show a long-wave trof over
the central US. In the lower levels, a front was dropping southward
over the deep south. Ahead of the front, a rich plume of moisture
denoted by a theta-e ridge (340K+) extends from the Gulf coast
northward across the Appalachians while PWAT exceeding 2.40" was
positioned over southern AL/southern MS. With the front expected to
stall short of the coast on Saturday, providing a focus for ascent
within zone of plentiful moisture and daytime instability, the
expectation is we should see showers and storms increase in coverage
through the course of the day. Main hazard in storms look to be
frequent lightning activity and brief gusty winds. The risk of
severe storms is low. Also, as seen with today`s activity, a
persistence type environment on Saturday will support efficient rain
processes and locally heavy downpours which may lead to potential of
isolated flooding occurrences, especially in lower lying/poor
drainage areas.

No changes to coastal flood watch and high risk of dangerous to
potentially deadly rip currents. Will continue to see wave
packets and high period swell arriving along the beaches this
weekend with Beryl lifting up across the southwest Gulf. Wave
run-up could bring some minor coastal flooding to some of our
vulnerable locations along with instances of beach erosion. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 719 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/

.New UPDATE...

UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Have updated the zones to remove today`s heat advisory headline which
expired at 7 pm. Although radar is showing a reduction in
intensity and coverage of showers and storms as we begin the
evening, still quite a bit of lingering light to moderate showers
in the wake of an outflow boundary that is nearing the coast.
Modest PoPs remain in the forecast this evening, lowering after
midnight. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/

New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Typical summertime evening when abundant instability and moisture
results in tsra at the start of the 00Z cycle with main hazard
being vsby reducing heavy rainfall. Wind gusts have generally been
20kts or less. Radar shows clusters of tsra sinking southward
over the coastal counties. Expect intensity to decrease this
evening and coverage to scatter out, leaving primarily light to
calm winds and higher based clouds by and after 06.03Z. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

An active summertime pattern will continue through the night and
into the day on Saturday. The main player at the surface is a
weak surface trough/boundary that is expected to slowly drift
towards the I-65 corridor on Saturday from the Northwest. For the
remainder of today and into the overnight we expect this cluster
of storms along the highway 84 corridor to slowly drift towards
the coast and slowly dissipating as they approach. Storms should
push more offshore overnight along the typical land breeze
circulation. Saturday will be mostly a rinse and repeat of today
with mid-morning storms along the nearshore coastal waters and
along the immediate coast transitioning to inland during the
afternoon as the boundary slowly moves into the area and the
seabreeze moves northward. The main threats could be a locally
damaging wind gust and heavy rainfall with the strongest of
storms. Given the rather deep moisture in place, dewpoints will
remain in the upper 70s throughout the day leading to heat indices
in the 106 to 109 range especially along and east of I-65. Storms
west of I-65 will likely limit how hot it gets and as a result
the new heat advisory is focused along and east of I-65.

Rip currents are expected to be an issue across area beaches. The
reason for this is a rather long period swell from Hurricane Beryl.
The energy a wave posses is proportional to its height and period,
thus the longer the period the more energy the wave posses. So in
this case, only a 2 foot wave will posses a lot more energy because
the wave period is so large. More energy going one way means it has
to rush back out to sea with just as much energy (energy is neither
created nor destroyed) thus rip currents will likely increase
despite relatively small waves. This creates a dangerous recipe for
people being tricked into a false sense of security. Be sure to use
caution at the beaches this weekend. Some minor coastal flooding
could also be possible for the same reasons stated above. Waves
might not be that big but they will pack some energy which will help
push waves further up the beach and could lead to minor overwash in
the typical flood prone areas.  BB/03

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A weak front will sink into the area on Saturday and gradually
wash out through Monday. Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging will
remain over the area through midweek. The combination of the weak
boundary, plenty of deep layer moisture and daytime heating will
lead to daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Showers and storms will start near the coast in
morning and spread inland through the afternoon hours. The upper
ridge builds into midweek with rain chances dropping back into the
30-40% range. Temperatures will remain very warm with overnight
lows in the lower to middle 70s inland with upper 70s to lower
80s near the coast. Highs will generally stay in the lower to
middle 90s each day. Heat index values will likely be near or
above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the period and heat
advisories may be needed on any given day, particularly if
convective coverage trends lower. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A light southerly flow will continue through the weekend
as larger period swell from Beryl moves into the marine waters.
Increased waves from Beryl will arrive by the beginning of next
week and winds will become more westerly by mid-week. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  92  76  92  76  91  76  91 /  60  80  30  60  20  60  30  70
Pensacola   78  92  78  91  78  91  79  91 /  50  70  40  60  30  60  40  70
Destin      80  91  81  91  80  90  81  91 /  50  70  40  60  30  60  30  70
Evergreen   74  93  74  93  73  92  74  91 /  60  80  40  60  40  60  20  70
Waynesboro  73  92  73  93  73  93  73  91 /  50  70  20  60  20  60  20  70
Camden      74  92  73  92  73  91  72  91 /  50  80  30  60  30  60  20  70
Crestview   75  94  75  95  73  93  74  94 /  50  70  30  60  30  60  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-
     261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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