Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
469
FNUS72 KMLB 051121
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for west marsh...US FWS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EDT on July 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Hot conditions today, with a Heat Advisory issued just west of the
burn site. High temperatures themselves will reach around 95 degrees
this afternoon, with heat indices 105-109. Similar hot temperatures
are forecast to continue Saturday. Dry conditions this morning, with
increasing chances for showers and storms after 1pm. Scattered activity
is forecast, with the sea breeze collision occurring west of the burn
site. Chances will then diminish near sunset. Scattered afternoon
showers and storms are once again expected Saturday afternoon. Fair
to good dispersion each day, with no min RH concerns.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes until
1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph late in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 4400 ft AGL late in
the morning.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 6 mph shifting to the east
around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 29.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20 28 25 24 28 38 35 39 31
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 20 30 40 50 50
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3
Temp............82 86 88 90 92 93 93 93 92
RH..............87 78 75 68 62 58 57 57 58
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N E E E E
20 FT wind spd..0 1 2 3 3 5 5 6 6
20 FT wind gust.2 5 6 8 9 10 12 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.3 3.4 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.5 3.3
Transp wind dir.NE N N N N E E E E
Transp wind spd.3 3 5 3 5 5 5 6 7
Dispersion idx..6 11 18 17 25 24 26 28 29
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 9 mph shifting to the south around 7
mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
north 3 to 6 mph overnight.
Dispersion index....23 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 7.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........19 26 37 31 14 36
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40 20 10 0 0 0
LAL.............3 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............91 85 81 79 78 76
RH..............59 70 79 85 85 90
20 ft wind......E 6 E 3 SE 2 SE 1 N 0 N 0
20 ft wind gust.13 10 7 5 3 3
Mix hgt (ft)....2500 1100 500 500 400 400
Transport wind..E 7 E 9 SE 7 S 7 N 5 N 5
Dispersion idx..26 4 3 3 2 2
LVORI...........2 3 4 5 6 7
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Light and variable winds early in the morning,
then shifting to the east 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 37.
LVORI...............10 early in the morning, then decreasing to 2
late in the morning.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........17 0 12 27 38 33
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 50 50
LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3
Temp............75 78 86 91 94 93
RH..............97 91 71 62 54 54
20 ft wind......N 0 SW 1 SE 1 SE 3 E 3 E 5
20 ft wind gust.3 3 6 8 9 10
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1000 3200 4800 5800 4700
Transport wind..N 3 S 3 NW 2 W 2 S 3 SE 5
Dispersion idx..2 5 10 15 27 34
LVORI...........8 6 3 2 2 1
$$
Forecaster...Leahy
Requested by...greg Suszek
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417440.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL greg_suszek@fws.gov