602
FXUS62 KMLB 081018
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
618 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...



.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 618 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect today for Heat Index values up to 112

- Locally heavy rainfall with the potential for minor flooding
  Today and Tuesday

- "Cooler" Temperatures Tuesday and into Late Week


Currently-Tonight... Current local radar imagery shows dry weather
over central Florida. Analysis charts show a weak upper level low
over the western Atlantic under a 594dm ridge that extends over
the Deep South and the state of Florida. Mostly dry conditions
are forecast into the mid morning with a slight chance (PoPs ~20%)
for onshore moving showers near the Treasure Coast. Scattered to
numerous showers (PoPs ~ 70-80%) and isolated to scattered
lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon as the east
coast sea breeze moves inland and converges with the west coast
sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The greatest
chance for rain showers (PoPs ~ 70-80%) and lightning storms is
along/near I-4 and towards the Space Coast.

A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of east central
Florida. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s and high humidity
will combine to result in Heat Index values between 105-112. This
level of heat can affect anyone without adequate precautions. It
is recommended to take frequent breaks from the heat and drink
plenty of fluids. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to
scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into the
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland and converges
with the west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous
storms. The greatest chance for rain showers (PoPs ~ 70-80%) and
lightning storms is from Lake county to along/near I-4 and towards
the Space Coast.

The main hazard with slow moving showers and storms will be
locally heavy rainfall (1-3" with local amounts up to 4+"). A
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists over portions of Lake,
Volusia, Orange Seminole, and northern Brevard county today for this
reason. Additionally, isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts up
to 40-50mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes are forecast this
afternoon. Rain and storm chances diminish after sunset and end
by midnight. Light southwest winds will back east-southeast at
around 10mph with the east coast sea breeze into the afternoon
(mainly east of Orlando).

Tuesday... Moisture is expected to remain high through at least
Tuesday with a weakening upper level low forecast to move west-
southwest over the western Atlantic before tracking across central
and south-central Florida Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate PWAT values towards the 99th
percentile with values between 2.25" to 2.75" over central
Florida which will continue the heavy rainfall and minor flooding
potential. Increasing predominate westerly flow on Tuesday will
result in the highest shower and lighting storm chances east of
Orlando and along the east coast (PoPs ~ 60-70%). The main hazards
with showers and lightning storms will be locally heavy rainfall
(1-3" with local amounts up to 4+"). A Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall exists to the north of Indian River and Okeechobee
counties for this reason. Additionally, isolated lightning storms
will have the potential to produce occasional to frequent
lighting strikes and wind gusts up to 30-40mph. Afternoon highs in
the low 90s with heat index values between 100-107 are forecast.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s are expected.

Wednesday-Sunday... The majority of global models (with the
exception of the ECMWF) indicate lower rain and storm chances
Wednesday with predominate west-southwest flow which is likely to
prevent the east coast sea breeze from moving far inland. Daily
scattered afternoon showers and lightning storms are forecast
through late week with decreasing chances into the weekend as high
pressure builds over the region and flow backs south-southeast.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast through
the Friday. Excessive Heat is forecast to return over the weekend
with highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values between
102-110 under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Low
temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 618 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Currently-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of lighting storms. Scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening. Isolated
storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall,
occasional to frequent lightning strikes and wind gusts up to
40-50mph. Light southwest winds back southeast this afternoon
with the sea breeze at 6-12kts with predominate south-southwest
winds Tuesday at 6-12kts. Seas are forecast to build up to 1-3ft.

Wednesday-Friday... Boating conditions remain favorable outside of
lightning storms. Offshore flow is forecast to develop mid to
late week with a greater chance for offshore moving showers and
lighting storms capable of gusty winds and occasional to frequent
lighting strikes. West to southwest winds at 5-10kts are expected
through Thursday with onshore winds forecast to develop into
Friday afternoon. Seas are forecast to build up to 1-3ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Continued VFR outside of afternoon/evening convection. Light
southerly flow early this morning becoming more SW/W after
sunrise. A change in the pattern today as the ECSB forms but
movement inland is slowed with a more active WCSB and boundary
collisions focused across the eastern peninsula. Winds backing
ESE/SE along the coast this afternoon with sea breeze formation
and continue to carry VCTS here around 17Z. Wind speeds still
relatively light at 5-10 mph areawide. Will look to add TEMPO
groups with 06Z/12Z TAF issuances. With VCTS at KMCO at 20Z,
looking for possible TEMPO group here around 20-21Z. Activity may
last thru mid-late evening across the eastern peninsula.
Lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours the
primary aviation concerns surrounding afternoon/evening
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  76  91  75 /  70  30  70  40
MCO  96  77  90  76 /  80  30  60  40
MLB  94  76  90  74 /  80  30  70  50
VRB  95  76  90  74 /  70  30  70  40
LEE  95  78  90  77 /  80  30  60  40
SFB  96  77  90  76 /  80  30  70  40
ORL  96  78  90  77 /  80  30  70  40
FPR  95  75  90  74 /  70  30  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Sedlock