130
FXUS62 KMLB 061336
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
936 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

No changes needed to the forecast this morning, as everything
remains on track. Drier air can be seen on water vapor imagery
from GOES-East early this morning. Forecast PWATs around 1.5" or
less and warm temperatures aloft should prevent any showers or
storms from developing over coastal areas. Pops there remain under
20%. Farther inland, PWATS look to continue around 2", especially
in Lake County. A few showers and storms could develop west of
I-95 as the sea breeze moves inland, but the highest chances will
be west of Orlando, closest to the sea breeze collision late this
afternoon. PoPs there 30-50%.

It will remain hot and muggy across the area today. Forecast peak
heat indices are just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, reaching up
to 100-107 degrees, especially over the interior. Afternoon high
temperatures themselves are forecast in the lower to mid-90s. A
few interior locations could see the upper 90s. If outdoors,
plan to take frequent breaks in air conditioning or shaded areas,
stay well-hydrated, and know the signs of heat stress. This level of
heat can still affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

A High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
is forecast today for beaches along the Volusia, Brevard, and
Indian River coastline. Here, entering the water is strongly
discouraged! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is in
effect for St. Lucie and Martin County beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR is forecast outside of storms. A slightly stronger ECSB compared
to the WCSB will result in the greatest chance for afternoon showers/storms
over west-central FL. Mostly dry weather is forecast at the coastal
sites with VCTS beginning at 19-20Z inland. TEMPO TSRA groups are
only forecast for KLEE from 20-23Z. Light and variable wind are
expected to increase from the E in the afternoon at 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions continue thru the holiday
weekend and thru early next week. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and perhaps a
little higher invof lightning storms. The pressure gradient will
remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze regime. Winds AOB
15 kts. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms, with coverage
possibly increasing early next week and an offshore storm
steering component Tue-Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  93  77 /  20  10  30  10
MCO  95  76  96  77 /  30  10  60  10
MLB  91  77  93  77 /  10  10  30  20
VRB  91  76  93  76 /  10  10  30  10
LEE  96  78  95  78 /  50  30  60  20
SFB  95  77  95  77 /  20  10  50  20
ORL  96  77  96  79 /  30  20  60  10
FPR  91  75  93  76 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Fehling