Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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244 FXUS62 KMLB 020120 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 920 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Current-Overnight...The ECSB continues to make steady progress inland this evening, though with the warmer temperatures aloft, we have only observed ISOLD convection. The threat for ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms continues into mid-late evening across the interior, as we do feel there will be some later boundary collisions (west of Orlando). As convection winds down later this evening and overnight, expect mainly dry conditions - though we may have to monitor for some onshore moving activity late overnight toward sunrise Tue morning across Martin (perhaps St. Lucie) County. The SERLY winds behind the sea breeze will diminish and become light S/SSE. Sky conditions will be PCloudy. Muggy overnight lows in the M- U70s areawide forecast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Thru Tonight...The east coast sea breeze is pushing slowly inland, sparking isolated showers and storms behind the boundary near the coast. Additional storms should lift north from south FL into interior Martin/St Lucie counties. A late collision with the west coast breeze is still forecast across the north interior around sunset resulting in scattered storms (50-60% coverage) and these should linger into the late evening. A tongue of drier air remains across the north seen on GOES-16 PWAT product and late morning Cape sounding measured warm H5 temps of -4.7C so this may limit storm coverage and intensity. A quiet, muggy overnight is forecast with mins in the mid to upper 70s. Tue-Wed... (modified) A weak frontal boundary near the FL-GA border will dissipate and allow the surface ridge axis to lift north of the area. Strong mid level ridge over the deep South will build heights over FL increasing subsidence/drying aloft and this will gradually reduce coverage of diurnal convection. Focus for showers and storms will initially be near the coast sparked by the inland moving sea breeze during the late morning/early aftn, transitioning to the interior sections late in the day. Scattered (~40%) coverage expected near the coast with 50-60% coverage interior. Max temps in the low to mid 90s is at or slightly above normal but the high dewpoints/humidity will produce maximum heat index readings of 102-107. Pockets of Major HeatRisk will creep into areas north of Interstate 4, indicative of unusually hot and humid conditions even for Florida, and partly driven by overnight low temperatures running 4-7F above normal. Thu-Next Weekend (previous)... Heat-related impacts will drive the weather story for this timeframe, along with at least scattered (30-60%) storm chances. Our weather will continue to be dominated by the strong upper high, characterized by H5 heights exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology. H85 temperatures rise to around +20C. Boundary layer flow will remain southeast early in this period before subtly veering toward the south late in the weekend. This will continue to draw high humidity out of the tropics, with dew points in the mid 70s F. Statistical guidance continues to suggest widespread mid 90s over the interior and low/mid 90s along the coast. Peak heat indices are forecast to range from 102-107F for the Fourth of July and Friday before climbing toward 104-109F next weekend. A Heat Advisory (108F) may be warranted for at least some of this timeframe as we get closer in time, especially considering the number of residents and visitors who will be spending time outdoors. Planning to enjoy our beaches, attend holiday celebrations, or visit area attractions? Make sure to pack the water and sunscreen, and expect to need some time in the shade, A/C, or pool! Much of the troposphere will remain warmer than normal, contributing to relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Through Saturday, the southeasterly flow should hold the higher storm chances over the interior (50-60%), with lesser coverage (30-40%) along the coast. Storm chances may creep up late in the weekend as the flow veers southerly and mid-level temperatures dip slightly. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The ECSB continues to slowly move inland this evening, without much fanfare. Not helped by the warmer temperatures aloft. ISOLD to SCT convection at best still in play early-mid this evening from boundary collisions, mainly over the interior. SERLY winds behind sea breeze with light S/SSE flow overnight. The sea breeze will develop and push inland again on Tue with greatest convective threat again across the interior in the afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The Atlc ridge axis draped across central Florida today will lift north of the local waters by midweek allowing dominant wind flow to be from the SE becoming enhanced (10-15 knots) each afternoon near the coast behind the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast primarily overnight and morning hours over the open Atlc and morning to early aftn over the intracoastal waters. The summer doldrums are here with seas 2 FT or less through Tue, then up to 3 FT offshore through Friday. Intracoastal and inshore boaters will notice a light to moderate chop behind the sea breeze each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 92 77 92 / 20 40 20 40 MCO 76 93 77 93 / 40 60 20 60 MLB 76 91 78 90 / 30 40 20 40 VRB 76 91 77 91 / 30 40 20 40 LEE 78 94 79 93 / 40 60 20 60 SFB 77 94 77 93 / 30 60 20 60 ORL 77 94 78 93 / 30 60 20 60 FPR 75 91 76 91 / 30 40 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Sedlock