Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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823 FXUS62 KMLB 022350 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 750 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Boundary collisions will keep SCT shra/tsra across the interior, ISOLD near the coast into at least mid evening. Will monitor need/use of "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as applicable. SERLY winds behind the sea breeze will become light into this evening and overnight. Conditions mostly dry overnight interior and cannot rule out ISOLD convection along the coast. Cloud debris will slowly thin through the night. Light/variable morning winds across the interior on Wed, then the ECSB moves inland, again, with SCT shra/tsra (greatest chance inland from coast) for a near normal summertime diurnal pattern. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures will remain above normal, as warm as the mid 90s in some locations. The risk of heat stress will increase as we move from Independence Day and into the weekend. - Continued daily storm chances, ranging from 30-50% near the coast to 40-60% over the interior, including Greater Orlando. Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge will flatten, with its axis roughly along the I-10 corridor from coast to coast. This will hinder significant northward movement for Hurricane Beryl as it churns through the Caribbean Sea. More information on this powerful storm can be found at hurricanes.gov. By this weekend, ensemble guidance has trended somewhat deeper with a trough digging across the Upper Midwest, which may flatten the ridge even further. However, H5 heights are predicted to exceed the 90th percentile of climatology (well above normal) through the entire forecast period locally. In the lower levels, the ridge axis will lift north of the area tonight. A steadier onshore flow will exist Wed then a very weak pressure gradient will produce light and variable winds Thu-Fri enhanced by the aftn sea breeze near the coast. A light south flow will resume this weekend as the ridge axis shifts southward once again across central/south Florida. Overall, no significant changes were needed from the previous forecast package. There will be a daily chance of showers and storms, ranging from 30-50% near the coast to 40-60% over the interior and Greater Orlando area. Heat-related impacts are still expected to increase by this weekend. Thru Tonight...East coast sea breeze will continue to spark isolated to scattered showers and storms as it pushes inland from the coastal counties. Late morning Cape sounding shows a deep layer of southerly flow up thru H5 with precip water values just under 2 inches. Mid level temps are only around -5C with unimpressive lapse rates but boundary collisions between the ECSB and outflows lifting northward from SW FL will produce 50-60% coverage of storms through early evening over the interior. So expect convection to linger past sunset once again but probably not as late as last eve. Lows overnight will reach the mid 70s, except upper 70s around urban Orlando and the barrier islands. Wednesday-Friday: (previous) During this timeframe, including Independence Day, the near-surface ridge axis will get a kick north of here, allowing light SE PBL winds. The embedded sea breeze will propagate inland each day, and a collision with the Gulf breeze should occur west of Orlando. Held onto likely rain/storm chances (~60%) near and west of Orlando on Wednesday as H5 T`s and available moisture are somewhat more favorable for convection, lessening to around 40% along the coast. For the Fourth of July & Friday, H5 T`s jump closer to climatological maxima as heights build. With a slight nudge down in total moisture, we yield no more than 30-50% storm chances, once again highest well inland. Temperatures remain hot but fairly steady. Low/mid 90s are forecast, with mid/upper 70s at night. There are some indications that the boundary layer may become slightly less humid, conceivably helping dew points to mix down to the low 70s in the afternoon hours. We will go with peak heat indices 101-107F, just below Heat Advisory criteria. Nonetheless, this still exhibits a Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk; those celebrating the holiday outdoors should take precautions to beat the heat, such as staying well-hydrated and seeking breaks in the shade, A/C, or pool. Next Weekend & Beyond: (previous) As the upper ridge flattens out, the thermal ridge will also sink closer to our latitude this weekend, characterized by H85 T`s approaching +20C. Combined with seasonably high dew points, oppressive heat and humidity remain the #1 weather concern this weekend. Statistical guidance continues to suggest fairly widespread mid 90s over all but the immediate coast (low 90s) from Saturday through Monday. Overnight low temps will struggle to drop much below 80F in urban Orlando and remain 4-7F above normal for all locales. Peak heat index readings will nudge a couple of degrees warmer, perhaps reaching into our Heat Advisory territory (>= 108F) especially near and north of Greater Orlando. As the HeatRisk enters the Major range for more of us, it will be important to find ways to cool off and stay hydrated each afternoon. H5 temperatures will hang out around near or over the 99th percentile of climatology through the weekend, keeping mid-level lapse rates poor and likely stifling sustained deep convection. However, near-normal total moisture and above-normal 0-3 KM mixing ratios suggest that the daily sea breeze and late-day collision should be enough to spark widely scattered storms. Areal coverage should peak 40-50% each day, perhaps as high as 60% over the far interior. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The Atlc high pressure ridge axis will lift north of the waters tonight and produce a more steady onshore flow Wednesday. A very weak pressure gradient will exist late week then a light south should resume this weekend. The daily sea breeze circulation will locally enhance the E to SE winds near the coast each afternoon 10-12 knots. Seas 2 FT or less near the coast, up to 3 FT offshore for the remainder of the week. A few showers and storms are forecast, especially during the overnight hours offshore and nearshore/intracoastal during the morning and early afternoon. Overall, favorable conditions will persist for both offshore and inshore boaters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 92 76 91 / 20 30 20 40 MCO 77 93 76 93 / 40 50 10 50 MLB 78 91 78 91 / 20 30 10 30 VRB 77 91 76 91 / 20 30 10 30 LEE 78 94 78 94 / 50 60 30 50 SFB 77 93 76 94 / 20 50 20 50 ORL 78 93 77 94 / 40 50 20 50 FPR 77 91 76 91 / 20 30 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Sedlock