Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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775 FXUS62 KMLB 071817 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions prevail outside out TS. Nudged VCTS start at inland terminals a little later to 22Z-23Z and continuing through 02Z, with 19Z now just VCSH based on a slow start to convection and latest hi-res guidance. Only TEMPO for TS impacts remains at KLEE 23Z-01Z. Flow regime becomes more southwesterly Monday, resulting in slower inland progression of the ECSB and a collision over the eastern half of the peninsula, and thus higher coverage of TS. Started VCTS for KMCO at 19Z, and expecting most or all other terminals to follow along in later packages. TEMPOs likely as well. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A few updates to increase PoPs slightly over the interior this evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Satellite imagery this morning indicates PWATs remain around 1.5" over most of the area, with locations across the northwestern CWA closer to 2". Some recovery is forecast, with global models indicting PWATs increasing to around 1.8-2" for most of the area by late this afternoon. Lingering drier air and warm temperatures aloft (-4/-5C) should limit convection for coastal locations today. Meanwhile, southerly flow will allow for a more centralized sea breeze collision this afternoon, with higher PoPs forecast over the interior. PoPs generally 30-50% west of I-95. CAMs show the greatest coverage over Lake County and the Kissimmee River. The primary storm threats continue to be gusty winds up to 45 mph, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rain that could lead to minor, nuisance flooding. Any convection that develops will diminish by late this evening. Hot temperatures continues today, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Humid conditions will produce heat indices 102 to 107 across much of east central Florida, especially west of I-95. If outdoors, plan to take frequent breaks in air conditioning or shaded areas, stay well-hydrated, and know the signs of heat stress. This level of heat can affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues along the coast from Indian River County northward. Entering the water is strongly discouraged in this area. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions continue into the middle of next week, outside of increasing shower/lightning storm activity; offshore moving Mon-Wed. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and perhaps a little higher invof lightning storms next week. The pressure gradient will remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze thru Tue. Light offshore winds will develop each evening and overnight, becoming more prevailing into mid-week, and continue to keep wind speeds during the period AOB 15 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 94 77 91 / 20 70 40 70 MCO 78 95 78 90 / 20 70 30 60 MLB 77 93 77 91 / 20 70 40 70 VRB 77 94 75 90 / 20 70 40 60 LEE 79 94 78 90 / 40 70 30 70 SFB 78 95 78 91 / 20 70 30 60 ORL 80 95 78 91 / 20 70 30 60 FPR 77 94 75 90 / 20 60 40 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Haley