Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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840 FXUS62 KMLB 051126 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 726 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR forecast outside of storms. The sea breeze pattern will continue with scat`d afternoon showers/storms inland. VCSH begins for all sites at 17Z. VCTS starts at 19Z for inland locations with TEMPO TSRA between 19Z-23Z. Shower/storm chances diminish after sunset. Light and variable winds during the overnight/morning increase from the E at 5-10kts into the afternoon. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues through this holiday weekend. Residents and visitors will need to take extra precautions to prevent heat-related illness... ...Daily chances for showers and lightning storms will be higher over interior sections, much lower along the coast today and Saturday. Storm coverage will increase early next week... Current-Tonight...Warm, humid and dry early this morning across ECFL. Skies are PCloudy with light/variable to calm winds. Weak surface high pressure ridging is across the region. Ridging continues aloft with warm H500 temps around -4.0C. PWAT values 1.80-2.00 inches along the coast and 2.00-2.40 inches well into the interior. A weak pressure gradient pattern will continue at the surface. Light morning winds will transition onshore and the ECSB will move well inland during the afternoon and early evening. A small threat for convection will exist along the coast with greatest chances (40-50pct) across the interior this afternoon and early evening. Storm steering flow remains light out of the north. Primary storm threats remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes, brief gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph locally, and torrential downpours which could cause minor flooding concerns. As convection diminishes in the early-mid evening (or pushes west of the area), expect mostly dry conditions overnight. Temperatures will remain hot with conditions muggy. Afternoon maxes forecast near 90F to L90s near the coast and L-M90s inland. Peak afternoon heat indices forecast 102-107F, except could reach 108-110F over much of the interior, with highest values generally west of I-95. A Heat Advisory goes in effect at 12pm thru 6pm, again today, for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee and interior Indian River/St. Lucie/Martin counties. Overnight mins remain warm and sultry and in the M-U70s for most. Sat-Sun...A persistent pattern continues with ridging/warm temps aloft. At the surface, very warm temperatures and muggy conditions will continue with afternoon highs in the L-M90s (highest inland) and peak heat indices 102-107+. Will consider additional heat advisories as necessary. Overnight mins in the 70s. There will be a daily sea breeze with diurnal shower/lightning storm chances, though highest likely focused (well) inland. Mon-Thu...Some weakening of the mid/upper level ridging is forecast though temperatures aloft (H500) do not improve by more than a degree or two (-4.5C to -6.0C). PWATs remain soupy (> 2.00 inches) thru much of the period. The pressure gradient remains weak with a daily sea breeze moving inland. Storm steering flow light S/SSW Mon-Thu. Continue a 50-60% PoP in the afternoon/early evening period. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day with lows in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions continue thru the holiday weekend and into early next week. Seas mainly 2-3 ft. The pressure gradient will remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze regime. Outside of this, winds likely to be light/variable and generally AOB 10 kts. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 94 76 95 76 / 50 20 50 10 MLB 91 76 91 77 / 30 10 30 10 VRB 91 75 92 76 / 30 10 30 10 LEE 94 78 95 78 / 50 30 50 20 SFB 94 76 95 77 / 50 20 40 10 ORL 94 76 95 78 / 50 20 50 10 FPR 91 74 92 76 / 30 10 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ044>046-053-058-144-254-259-264. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling