Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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573 FXUS62 KMLB 061845 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 - A high risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents for portions of the coast continues through at least today. - An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues through this weekend. - Daily chances for showers and lightning storms, especially over the interior. Chances will increase early next week. Rest of Today-Tonight...Drier air has filtered into east central Florida from the Atlantic and has so far succeeded in preventing convection from developing as of around 230pm. Satellite observations even indicate PWATs have fallen to as low as 1.2-1.4" across the coastal counties. Expect to see this dry trend continue, with no mentionable PoPs east of Orlando. However, models continue to suggest showers, and possibly a few storms, developing over Lake County later this afternoon and into this evening along the sea breeze collision, where PWATs remain around 2". Have maintained PoPs 30-50% in this area, as showers have already begun to develop along the western half of the peninsula. Main threats with any storms will be gusty winds to 45mph, lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours. Any convection will diminish this evening, with dry conditions forecast overnight. Hot temperatures continue this afternoon, with heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria (102-107). As we reach peak heating, highs will reach the lower to mid-90s, with some upper 90s possible over the interior. Tonight, temperatures will remain warm and muggy, with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday-Monday...A mid to upper level low over the western Atlantic shifts northward into early next week. This will shift winds southerly across the local area, drawing deeper moisture up from the tropics. PWATs returning to around 2" will support an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon. A less dominant east coast sea breeze will also lead to a more centralized collision over the Florida peninsula. Thus, the highest chances for convection will remain over the interior. But, will see PoPs increase to 30-60% Sunday and around 60% area-wide on Monday, with peak coverage in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain hot, as deeper moisture maintains high heat indices. High temperatures are forecast in the lower to mid-90s each day, though will need to monitor the need for Heat Advisories, especially on Sunday, due to heat indices 102-107+. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Tue-Fri (previous)...An onshore component develops by mid-week continuing into late week. PWATs remain around 2.00 inches and mid-level ridging will concentrate northward. Daily sea breezes with offshore steering flow thru Wed, becoming more southerly Thu- Fri. Keeping PoPs around 60pct areawide until more consistency dictates otherwise. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day, with clouds and onset of onshore breezes the deciding factor in the lower end of high max potential. Lows continue mainly in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Daily chances for showers and storms each day through mid week next week, with chances increasing through the period. Outside of convection, generally favorable boating conditions are forecast, with seas 1-3ft. Onshore winds today will veer southerly Sunday and Monday, then offshore into mid-week. However, will see winds back southeasterly each afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15kts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR outside of TS, and not much of that either. A diffuse ECSB is somewhere west of I-95, and should become a little better defined as it reaches the inland terminals between 19Z-21Z. ISO TS/SH expected INVOF of KSFB-KISM 20Z-00Z but bulk of activity expected to push east, so sticking with just VCTS. ECSB-WCSB INVOF KLEE forecast to produce higher coverage of TS 20Z-23Z. TS/SH dissipates by 02Z with VFR conditions prevailing through early Sunday afternoon. Generally similar setup Sunday, though guidance is once again calling for a sea breeze collision closer to KISM- KSFB and thus higher coverage of TS INVOF those terminals. Bulk of TS/SH forecast to remain west of the coastal terminals again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 93 77 93 / 10 30 10 60 MCO 77 96 78 94 / 10 60 20 60 MLB 77 93 78 92 / 0 30 20 60 VRB 76 93 76 93 / 0 30 10 60 LEE 78 95 78 94 / 30 60 20 60 SFB 77 95 78 94 / 10 50 20 60 ORL 77 96 79 94 / 10 50 20 60 FPR 75 93 76 92 / 0 30 10 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Haley