Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
104 FXUS63 KMKX 061950 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Round of showers and some thunderstorms well after midnight and into Sunday morning. - Continued near daily chances (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: There remains a small chance for a shower to occur late this afternoon, though most of this activity has been south of the Illinois border. Best chances would be along the lake breeze boundary, though most of the area should remain dry. There should be an area of showers and some thunderstorms that move east northeast into the area well after midnight and into Sunday morning. The low level jet veering over the area should help drive this activity, along with passing differential CVA. This activity may gradually weaken as it shifts through the area. More chances for showers and storms are forecast for Sunday afternoon and night, as continued differential CVA occurs with some warm and moist advection in the low levels. There is more mean layer CAPE Sunday afternoon and night, though tall and skinny with deep layer bulk shear perhaps 25 to 30 knots. Thus, not expecting severe weather. May see locally heavy rainfall if storms move over the same areas. Warm and humid conditions should linger during this period. A southeast lake breeze is expected Sunday afternoon near Lake Michigan. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Monday through Saturday: Continued chances for showers and storms are forecast at times for Monday into Wednesday, as the main 850 to 500 mb trough axis slowly pushes eastward through the region. Ensembles generally support this trend. There will be perhaps more diurnally- driven showers and storms during this period, with tall and skinny mean layer CAPE building during peak heating with little capping and bulk shear of 25 knots or so. Winds will shift to the west Monday night into Tuesday, as a weak cold front moves through. Warm and humid conditions will remain during this time per ensemble trends. High pressure may develop over or to the northeast of the region for later in the week, though a slow-moving 500 mb shortwave trough may linger over the area. This feature is supported by the ensemble Cluster Analysis of 500 mb heights. Periodic chances for showers and storms will continue for this period, with warm and humid conditions remaining. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 There remains a small chance for a shower to occur late this afternoon, though most of this activity has been south of the Illinois border. Best chances would be along the lake breeze boundary, though most of the area should remain dry. There should be an area of showers and some thunderstorms that move east northeast into the area well after midnight and into Sunday morning. This activity may gradually weaken as it shifts through the area. Madison, Janesville and Sheboygan would have the better chances of being affected by this activity. Locally reduced visibility and ceiling heights are possible in any storms. More chances for showers and storms are forecast for Sunday afternoon and night. Warm and humid conditions should linger during this period. The southeast lake breeze will linger until this evening for terminals near Lake Michigan. Light south winds tonight will increase on Sunday, with a southeast lake breeze Sunday afternoon near Lake Michigan. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Light south winds are expected tonight, as weak high pressure around 30.0 inches passes by to the southeast. South winds should then persist across the lake into Monday, then shift southwest to west Monday night into Tuesday. Winds should then shift north to northeast by Wednesday. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible during this time. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee