317
FXUS62 KMHX 032340
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
740 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push offshore tonight and then remain
centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat
and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

- Hazardous weather unlikely overnight

High pressure remains anchored across the Mid-Atlantic at this
time, with a wavy frontal boundary noted well to the south from
Georgia east into the SW Atlantic. Beneath the high, PWATs have
fallen below 1.50", which puts the moisture content of the
airmass in the 25th percentile for this time of year. The
seabreeze has made it about as far inland as Kinston and
Greenville, but with the very dry airmass in place, no shower or
thunderstorm activity is ongoing at this time. With the evening
update, changes to the forecast were minimal.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to shift
offshore overnight allowing winds to remain light and skies to
become mostly clear. Weak lee troughing develops further inland
as a weak cold front shifts across the Ohio River Valley, and
winds will veer to a southerly direction overnight allowing Tds
to slowly rise. Still, given the light winds inland and mostly
clear skies, another round of effective radiational cooling will
result in one final evening of relatively mild lows in the mid
to upper 60s. Along the immediate coast, temperatures hover
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wed... High pressure becomes centered offshore on
Thursday allowing for south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph
to persist across ENC. With the southerly winds in place,
dewpoints will continue to creep up as weak moisture return
continues as well. Diurnal cumulus field will develop once
again in the late morning to early afternoon and overspread the
entire CWA until the seabreeze can develop and push the cloud
field further inland. Otherwise with increasing low level
thicknesses temps will be slightly warmer on Thurs getting into
the low to mid 90s inland and into the mid 80s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wed...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend

Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week
and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up
across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain
overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle
to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will
continue to push further offshore through the end of the week
allowing SSW flow and deeper moisture to return to the area.

Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for
oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar
into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the
beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This could lead to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A
cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next
week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast
through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops
Fri into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Friday/...
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

 - VFR likely for most areas over the next 24 hrs (>80% chance)

 - BR and sub-VFR conditions possible for OAJ overnight (40-60%
   chance)

High pressure will shift offshore overnight, with a light
southeasterly flow allowing some shallow moisture advection to
occur off the Atlantic. Clear skies plus light winds and some
shallow moistening may allow a few hours of sub-VFR conditions
in BR to develop. Guidance gives the highest chance at OAJ, and
for this reason, I`ve introduced a period of MVFR conditions
there. At this time, the risk of a deeper, more impactful fog,
appears low (<10% chance). On Thursday, the light southeasterly
flow will continue, with a bump up in winds with the advancing
seabreeze in the afternoon. Once again, the risk of SHRA or TSRA
looks low along the seabreeze (<10% chance). Of note, however,
TSRA approaching from the west may make a run at the coastal
plain of Eastern NC (ISO, PGV). If this were to occur, it`s
expected that they would arrive in a weakening fashion, and just
beyond the current TAF cycle. For now, then, I`ll keep with a
VFR TAF for Thursday.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Wed... Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 345 PM Wed... No significant changes to the forecast as
pleasant boating conditions continue over area waters as high
pressure, centered off the coast, extends southward over the
Carolinas. Ongoing 5 to 15 kt SE`rly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
will continue to persist over our waters through tonight with
winds and seas changing little through Thursday.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. Light and variable winds to start off
Thu, becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Typical summertime
pattern late week into the weekend, with SSW winds 10-20 kt,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. Seas generally
2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the
outer waters Fri night. May continue to see longer period swells
from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should
have little impact on wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...CQD/RCF