755
FXUS62 KMHX 070725
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
325 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging centered in the Atlantic will continue to
extend west towards the Eastern Seaboard into next week. A cold
front will stall to the west today, eventually dissipating
across the Piedmont tonight into Monday. More diurnally driven
shower and thunderstorm activity is then forecast from early in
the week to about midweek before the next front approaches and
interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing
increased precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Precip free early this morning, although
warm and humid conditions are occuring through the CWA. With a
solid rainfall footprint from Little Washington to Jacksonville,
freshly saturated soils may provide fodder for low stratus
and/or patchy fog early Sunday morning, although the latter will
depend on how much cirrus clears out. Lows are still expected
to get down into the mid to upper 70s. Coastal trough develops
offshore early this morning, moving towards the OBX through the
morning into the early afternoon. Enough instability exists
this morning over the warmer waters for general showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the coastal trough, likely
weakening once they move inland.


Almost another rinse and repeat forecast for today, though
temps will be a bit lower, below any heat headline criteria.
Weakening cold front is forecast to begin to dissipate over the
Piedmont while seabreeze sets up in the afternoon once again.
Much like on Sat shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to
develop along the seabreeze moving inland. Hi-res guidance is
also showing a cluster of storms originating to our north,
generally west of the Albemarle Sound, moving southward through
the evening into Martin, Pitt, Washington, and Beaufort
counties. This cluster of storms will collide with the sea
breeze between 5-8PM, likely increasing thunderstorm coverage.
With PWAT`s remaining around 2+ inches, low magnitude corfidi
upshear vectors, DCAPEs 700-1000, and with 1000-2000 J/kg of
SBCAPE around the area showers and thunderstorms are forecast
with any activity that develops bringing a threat for localized
flash flooding and gusty winds. Otherwise temps are slightly
cooler on Sun getting into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in coverage and intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and
PoPS drastically decrease as a result. Coastal regions and areas
offshore could see showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder
tonight from the coastal trough just offshore. Lows will be in
the mid 70s inland, upper 70s for beaches.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through
mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next
weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week.
Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon
through mid week.

A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak
upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be
near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more
widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front
will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling
near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely
interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall
continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely
for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of
shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However,
periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially
later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards
2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it
could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be
near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and
overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the
70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees
each afternoon through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Mon/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...Heaviest rainfall yesterday fell along a
OCW- EWN- OAJ line, and this zone will be the focus for the best
low stratus and fog potential where soil moisture will be most
favorable. Guidance has backed off on fog and low stratus
potential a tad, but 9-12Z continues to be the best chance
should it pan out. Kept MVFR with TEMPO IFR in the latest TAF
issuance early morning today. Conditions should improve
gradually this morning with the help of daytime heating. Rinse
and repeat forecast today with another round of showers and
thunderstorms developing in an otherwise VFR regime. Winds
remain light through the day at around 5 kt, although some
spotty gusts to 15 kt are possible immediately behind the
seabreeze.

Coastal trough offshore will bring lower ceilings to OBX
tonight, likely MVFR.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late
week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sunday... Winds are currently SW`rly persisting at
10-15 kts, and will continue to do so through Sun afternoon.
Seas are currently 2 to 4 ft, becoming 2 to 3 feet as we move
further into this morning. The one caveat to this otherwise
pleasant boating conditions will be the constant threat for
isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
which could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues
with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough
inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas
building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters
late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/RCF