Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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252 FXUS62 KMHX 071101 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 701 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall to the west today giving us rain chances, eventually dissipating across the Piedmont tonight into Monday. More diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is then forecast from early in the week to about midweek before the next front approaches and interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing increased precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 700 AM Sunday...A line of showers and thunderstorms have set up along the coastal trough offshore of OBX this morning. Current expectation is for this line to remain offshore, although a few errant showers and thunderstorms approaching OBX are not out of the question. Brought PoPs down for OBX and areas west through the morning. Warm and muggy right now with temps in the mid to upper 70s inland, near 80 for beaches. Almost another rinse and repeat forecast for today, though temps will be a bit lower, below any heat headline criteria. Weakening cold front is forecast to begin to dissipate over the Piedmont while seabreeze sets up in the afternoon once again. Much like on Sat shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along the seabreeze moving inland. Hi-res guidance is also showing a cluster of storms originating to our north, generally west of the Albemarle Sound, moving southward through the evening into Martin, Pitt, Washington, and Beaufort counties. This cluster of storms will collide with the sea breeze between 5-8PM, likely increasing thunderstorm coverage. With PWAT`s remaining around 2+ inches, low magnitude corfidi upshear vectors, DCAPEs 700-1000, and with 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE around the area showers and thunderstorms are forecast with any activity that develops bringing a threat for localized flash flooding and gusty winds. Otherwise temps are slightly cooler on Sun getting into the upper 80s to low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and PoPS drastically decrease as a result. Coastal regions and areas offshore could see showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder tonight from the coastal trough just offshore. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland, upper 70s for beaches. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week. Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon through mid week. A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees each afternoon through mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Mon/... As of 700 AM Sunday...Low ceilings didn`t materialize this morning despite ample moisture. leaving us with generally VFR conditions outside of OAJ which is bouncing between MVFR/IFR vis this morning. Conditions should improve gradually this morning with the help of daytime heating. Rinse and repeat forecast today with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing in an otherwise VFR regime. Winds remain light through the day at around 5 kt, although some spotty gusts to 15 kt are possible immediately behind the seabreeze. Tonight brings another chance for fog development along and west of hwy 17, and low ceilings as we have ample low level moisture. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 AM Sunday... Winds are currently SW`rly persisting at 10-15 kts, and will continue to do so through Sun afternoon. Seas are currently 2 to 4 ft, becoming 2 to 3 feet as we move further into this morning. The one caveat to this otherwise pleasant boating conditions will be the constant threat for isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity which could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters late week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/RJ MARINE...CQD/RJ