Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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467 FXUS62 KMHX 030647 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through tomorrow. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 10 PM Tue...No changes needed with late eve update. Prev disc... As of 7 PM Tue...No changes needed with pm update. Still expecting pleasantly coolish overnight lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast (low 70s beaches) as winds become light overnight. Prev disc... As of 3 PM Tue...High pressure remains in control through the day, gradually shifting eastward as mid- level ridge builds overhead. Temperatures will rebound from cool morning lows with plenty of sunshine, and highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. Fair conditions continue tonight with high pressure continuing over the area. A light easterly breeze will persist, but it will become nearly calm well inland. Partly cloudy conditions are expected as moisture streams in off the Atlantic, and this along with the light breeze will limit overnight cooling somewhat, with early morning lows expected in the low 60s inland, and the mid to upper 60s closer to the coast. Some patchy fog is possible over the coastal plain, but this might end up forming closer to the I-95 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tues...Only small changes to the weather pattern Wednesday with high pressure shifting slightly to the east and resulting in a more E/ESE wind across Eastern NC. Low level thicknesses will be similar, so expect highs again in the mid to upper 80s with relatively low humidity levels. A slight increase in moisture around 850 mb will lead to slightly more clouds, and there even could be a few brief sprinkles. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 AM Wed... KEY MESSAGES: - Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this weekend July 4th holiday should feature mostly dry weather and temps near climo. CAMs show convection ongoing over central VA Thu afternoon and evening. Expect this activity to weaken with loss of heating as it moves eastward towards ENC. Will continue to keep the forecast dry, though there is potential for an isolated shower or storm to push across the northern portions of the forecast area, best chances closer to the Albemarle Sound, after 00z. Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore through the end of the week allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s. This could to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops Fri into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06Z Thu/... As of 130 AM Wed...VFR conditions prevail across area terminals today as high pressure centered off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula extends into the Carolinas. Main concern tonight remains a weak signal for patchy low stratus and ground fog, although highest probabilities are north and west of the region closer to the VA border. Still, cannot rule out a spotty early morning fog threat for PGV where winds will most likely and a fog-happy OAJ based on recent observational trends. Another quiet flying day in store after sunrise with easterly winds gradually veering southeasterly as sea breeze makes its way inland, although winds will remain at around 5 kt through the period. For OBX, winds stay closer to a steady 10 kt. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 245 AM Wed... Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 PM Tues...Nice boating conditions are anticipated through tomorrow with high pressure ridging across the waters. Winds will be NE 10-20 kts through this evening and then will subside to E at 5-15 kts tonight. Light E to ESE flow continues tomorrow. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 245 AM Wed...Mostly benign boating conditions are forecast for the period. Light and variable winds to start off Thu, becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Typical summertime pattern late week into the weekend, with SSW winds 10-20 kt, strongest during the late afternoon and evening. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night. May continue to see longer period swells from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on wave heights. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL/SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...MS/CQD MARINE...SGK/CQD