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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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928 FXUS62 KMHX 081330 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 930 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast through midweek before the next front approaches and interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing increased precipitation chances late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 930 AM Monday...Although there has been little change in the overall pattern across the region since yesterday, there are several subtle indications which support the contention that there will be less coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Analysis of the 12Z upper air data showed a persistent region of lower dewpoints in the 925-700 MB layer across eastern NC vs areas to the west which is likely due to subsidence. Forecast MUCAPES are also lower than yesterday (2500-3000 J/kg Sunday and 1500-2000 J/kg today). The CAM`s across the board reflect this as they all are forecasting much less coverage in diurnal convection this afternoon into evening. Thus feel comfortable in limiting PoPs to 20-40% which is at or slightly below climo. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop late morning through the afternoon with daytime heating, initiating along the sea breeze and other lingering boundaries across the region. The airmass remains very moist with PW values around 2.25" which could lead to locally heavy rainfall once again aided by slow storm motion due to very weak steering currents. The severe threat is limited with very little shear and moist adiabatic sounding profiles with MLCAPE lower than the previous couple of days. Temps will be quite oppressive with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s. Low level thicknesses have changed little from yesterday and expect highs inland in the lower 90s and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will top out around 100 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 4 AM Monday...Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate across inland areas through the evening with loss of heating but are expected to continue off the coast near the Gulf Stream. Very muggy conditions persist with lows generally in the mid 70s && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday...Typical summertime pattern expected through mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week. Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon through mid week. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more widespread coverage late week into the weekend. Another front will approach late week into the weekend, possibly stalling near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall continued to cap pops at chance for sea breeze related convection through Wednesday, but continued the increasing PoP trend for Thursday and Friday with Likelies in the forecast. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it could also lead to minor flooding concerns as storm motions are expected to be relatively slow, particularly through Wednesday. Temps look to be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees each afternoon through mid week. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 725 AM Monday...Generally VFR conditions this morning but some shallow nuisance fog mainly across southwest rtes bringing occasional MVFR conditions, however operational impacts will likely be minimal. Could also see occasional MVFR cigs through the morning as LCLs rise with a very moist airmass in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across rtes late this morning through the afternoon which will bring occasional sub-VFR conditions as well. Storms will dissipate through the evening with loss of heating but could see shallow fog or perhaps stratus develop across portions of the area overnight once again. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 240 AM Monday...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 930 AM Monday...High pressure off the coast will produce S to SW winds generally less than 15 kt across the waters with seas 2-4 ft through tonight. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 240 AM Monday...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters Thursday-Friday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...SK/RJ MARINE...JME/SK/RJ