Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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347 FXUS62 KMHX 021412 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1012 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through tomorrow. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 10 AM Tue...High pressure remains in control through the day, gradually shifting eastward as mid- level ridge builds overhead. Temperatures will rebound from cool morning lows with plenty of sunshine, and highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM Tue...Little change in surface and upper air patterns overnight, although hi-res guidance does depict a very subtle coastal trough developing overnight. A minority of guidance suggests a few very spotty showers are possible along this boundary, but kept PoPs below mentionable for now. Lows will be a couple degrees warmer than this morning, but still in the low 60s inland to upper 60s to around 70 coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Tue... KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler than average temps are forecast on Wed - Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this weekend Wed...Upper troughing offshore will continue to push eastward while upper ridge continues to build over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure gradually slides E`wards into the Atlantic as weak coastal trough develops. Weak trough and easterly flow may lead to isolated light showers, mainly across the southern forecast area, but will keep mostly dry forecast for now. Below normal temps will continue, with highs in the 80s and dewpoints more comfortably in the 60s. Thu through Mon...Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore through the end of the week allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for oppressive heat and humidity to return, Fri into the weekend. High temps will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s. This could to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12Z Wed/... As of 705 AM Tue...VFR conditions remain in place this morning with a substantial stratus deck just offshore behind a stalled frontal boundary readily apparent on satellite imagery. High pressure continues to build in from the north and will remain in control with few to sct cu coverage in the afternoon. Easterly winds gusting to 15 kt at times, with more frequent gusts along the Outer Banks. Slightly greater fog/stratus threat early tomorrow morning with increasing low level moisture thanks to the easterly flow, with highest focus west of Highway 17. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 230 AM Tue... Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 350 AM Tue...Marine conditions continue to slowly improve this morning as high pressure further expands behind yesterday`s cold front, now draped across southeastern Georgia. Seas of 3-5 feet, especially south of Cape Hatteras, are holding in persistent northeasterly winds of around 15-20 kt with a few isolated gusts to 25 kt. Conditions still warrant SCA headlines south of Cape Hatteras, but model trends suggest these will be able to drop around sunrise. Further improvement expected today as northeasterly winds ease to 10-15 kt through tonight, becoming easterly by early Wed morning. Seas will slowly subside to 3-4 feet through the period. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 230 AM Tue...Mostly benign boating conditions are forecast for the period. High pressure ridging continues to gradually push E`wards across the area Tuesday night, relaxing the gradient with winds easing to 5-15 kts while becoming more E`rly by Wed morning. Winds continue to remain light and veer to the SE and eventually the S on Thurs as ridging becomes centered to the E. Seas will gradually lower as well Wed and Thurs down to 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK/MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...CQD/RCF AVIATION...CQD/MS MARINE...CQD/MS