Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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316 FXUS62 KMHX 031406 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through tomorrow. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... As of 1005 AM Wed...No significant changes to the forecast since the previous update as temps have warmed steadily as expected into the low 80s this morning. In addition to this, some diurnal Strato-CU has begun to develop this morning as well and expect coverage of this diurnal CU field to continue to increase over the next few hours as temps warm into the mid to upper 80s today. Prev Disc...Little change in the weather pattern from yesterday as mid- level ridge axis remains centered over the I-95 corridor while surface high pressure remains planted along the eastern seaboard. Weak shower activity associated with the coastal trough is beginning to weaken, but did introduce a near- term increase in PoPs to account for trends. This should all come to an end in no more than a couple hours. High will slowly shift east, allowing winds to veer more east to east-southeast. Highs today a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with a modest uptick in low-level thicknesses, supporting highs in the upper 80s inland and mid 80s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Wed...High pressure will continue to shift offshore overnight. Weak lee troughing develops further inland as a weak cold front shifts across the Ohio River Valley, and winds will continue to veer southerly overnight allowing Tds to slowly rise. Still, given near calm winds inland and mostly clear skies another round of effective radiational cooling will result in one final evening of relatively mild lows in the mid 60s. Along the immediate coast, temperatures hover around 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 AM Wed... KEY MESSAGES: - Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this weekend July 4th holiday should feature mostly dry weather and temps near climo. CAMs show convection ongoing over central VA Thu afternoon and evening. Expect this activity to weaken with loss of heating as it moves eastward towards ENC. Will continue to keep the forecast dry, though there is potential for an isolated shower or storm to push across the northern portions of the forecast area, best chances closer to the Albemarle Sound, after 00z. Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore through the end of the week allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s. This could to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops Fri into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12Z Thu/... As of 655 AM Wed...As expected, spotty fog and low stratus developed at PGV and OAJ while all other spots hold at VFR. Restrictions will lift by 12z, giving way to another quiet flying day with easterly winds gradually veering southeasterly as sea breeze makes its way inland, although winds will remain at around 5 kt through the period. For OBX, winds stay closer to a steady 10 kt. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 245 AM Wed... Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 420 AM Wed...Pleasant boating conditions in place over area waters as high pressure, centered off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula, extends southward over the Carolinas. Weak coastal trough sits just off the Outer Banks kicking up very spotty shower activity over Onslow Bay and the waters north of Cape Hatteras, with a more impressive persistent shower on the northern coast of the Albemarle Sound. This shower threat will gradually diminish through the afternoon hours. Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with winds generally easterly at around 10 kt. Little change in this regime is expected, although winds will steadily veer southerly through the period as the high gradually moves offshore and lee troughing sharpens well inland. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 245 AM Wed...Mostly benign boating conditions are forecast for the period. Light and variable winds to start off Thu, becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Typical summertime pattern late week into the weekend, with SSW winds 10-20 kt, strongest during the late afternoon and evening. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night. May continue to see longer period swells from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on wave heights. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/RCF SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/MS MARINE...CQD/MS