559
FXUS62 KMHX 072347
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
747 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall to the west tonight which will result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through early
this evening. The front will eventually dissipate across the
Piedmont on Monday. More diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm activity is then forecast from early in the week
through about midweek before the next front approaches and
interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing
increased precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 740 PM Sun...Thunderstorm activity is beginning to wane
tonight with only a few spotty pockets of convection developing
along residual outflow boundaries from prior activity. Continued
weakening is expected with loss of heating tonight, and by
midnight all locations should be dry. Conversely, convective
activity will begin to blossom over area waters overnight with
widely scattered showers potentially impacting the immediate
coast, especially the Outer Banks as lift continues to increase
with an offshore upper low.

Temps tonight are forecast to be sultry in the low to mid 70s
and light southerly coastal breezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...The pattern for much of the upcoming week
will feature typical summer heat and humidity along with
primarily diurnally driven showers and storms. Monday the
coverage of these showers and storms should be less than what
occurred over the weekend and should form mainly in vicinity of
the sea breeze boundaries in the afternoon. Storms should remain
sub severe with MUCAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg and very weak
shear. Some locally heavy rains will be possible as storm
movements should remain slow. Highs again will be in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through
mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next
weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week.
Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon
through mid week.

A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak
upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be
near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more
widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front
will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling
near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely
interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall
continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely
for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of
shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However,
periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially
later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards
2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it
could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be
near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and
overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the
70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees
each afternoon through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00Z Tue/...
As of 750 PM Sun...Mix of MVFR and VFR cigs this evening as
convective activity begins to give way to decaying stratiform
rain. Brief periods of MVFR likely in heavier rainfall in the
near term, but all areas should be dry by 02-03z. Guidance
remains insistent on a bank of MVFR stratus developing over
central NC and extending over the coastal plain by 09-10z, and
expanded the MVFR forecast to include both ISO and PGV through
about 14z. LAMP is very aggressive with fog potential, but given
likely persistent debris cirri overhead the probability of this
appears low (10% or less).

VFR conditions return for the remainder of the period. Showers
and thunderstorms likely to redevelop tomorrow but with
considerably less coverage than the past two days.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late
week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...Good boating conditions outside of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Mon.
Winds are currently SW at 10-15 kts, and will persist through
Mon. Seas will remain 2-3 ft. Thunderstorms will have locally
higher winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues
with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough
inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas
building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters
late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/MS
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...JME/CQD