114
FXUS62 KMHX 060637
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
237 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat and humidity will remain over ENC today. High
pressure will remain centered off the coast through early next
week. At the same time a weakening cold front will approach from
the west this weekend and eventually stalling over the Eastern
Seaboard before dissipating Sunday into Monday. This will bring
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through early
next week. A wetter pattern looks to set up mid to late week
as an approaching front interacts with moisture from the
remnants of Beryl.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Friday...We`ll remain hot and humid overnight with
lows only dipping into the mid to upper 70s. Cloudy skies and
light winds should prevent widespread fog development
overnight, put some patchy fog is possible especially in areas
that received rainfall today. The heat advisory remains in
effect until 8 PM tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Not much change in the upper or low level
patterns on Sat across the area as upper ridging will remain
over the Southeast and an upper level low begins to approach
from the east. Expect the seabreeze to get going once again in
the afternoon while a thermal trough looks to get set up across
the Piedmont. The biggest change in the forecast is the approach
of a cold front from the west which will be located near the
Appalachians on Sat. This thermal trough and front will finally
provide some increased lift across ENC tomorrow. Combined with
increasing instability with SBCAPE values around 1500-3000 J/kg
and ample moisture with PWATs around 2+ inches across ENC expect
shower and thunderstorm activity to be slightly more widespread
along the seabreeze and thermal trough Sat afternoon and
evening. As a result have SChc to Chc PoP`s (and even some
likely PoP`s towards the evening hours) across the area for Sat
afternoon starting after about 11AM. While storms will be more
pulse in nature, a few storms could produce some stronger wind
gusts given the strong instability and heavy rain given the high
PWATs across the area. Once again, as we get towards sunset
precip chances begin to dwindle with the loss of daytime
heating.

Another hot and oppressively humid day is forecast across ENC on
Saturday with heat advisory in place across much of ENC outside
of the coastal locations and OBX. Temps get as high as the mid
to upper 90s across our inland areas with upper 80s to low 90s
along the coast and OBX. Combined with the humidity it will feel
like its 105-110F away from the coast and closer to 95-105
along the coast and OBX. Much like on Friday make sure to stay
hydrated, wear sunscreen, and try to limit strenuous outdoor
activity during the daytime.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Typical summertime pattern expected through
early next week, shifting to a wetter pattern mid to late week.
Temps will remain near climo.

A cold front will stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast through
early next week. This boundary will likely do little, except to
possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast Sunday into early next week. Did increase pops a bit
Sunday afternoon, especially north of the Pamlico Rvr where high
res guidance shows better convective coverage, near area of
better instability. Expect convective chances to be near or
slightly above climo Monday and Tuesday, with better chances for
more widespread coverage mid to late next week. Another front
will approach late next week, possibly stalling near or over the
area as weak waves develop along it which may interact with
moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Still too much uncertainty
this far out, so will continue to cap pops at chance through the
period. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should
limit overall svr threat. However, periods of moderate to heavy
rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs
potentially creeping towards 2.5". Temps look to be near climo,
with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 715 PM Friday...Pred VFR expected through the period.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are dissipating across the
coastal plain and once these diminish, the rest of the evening
will remain dry. The best chance to see MVFR ceilings overnight
will be OAJ where cloud cover will be slightly less and winds
will be a little lighter. All other terminals are expected to
remain VFR through the overnight period. Tomorrow will be a
rinse and repeat of today with 5-10 kt southerly winds and a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each
night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Gusty winds as a result of a thermal
trough across the Piedmont has tightened the pressure gradient
slightly as this trough interacts with ridging offshore. As it
stands now southerly winds to 15-20G25-30kts across the
Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke/Albemarle Sounds, Alligator River, and
northern Coastal waters are ongoing so the SCA remains in place
into tonight. Winds will ease later tonight around 11PM closer
to 10-20 kts which will end the ongoing SCA`s. Elsewhere across
our waters 10-20 kt S`rly winds will continue to persist into
Sat. 3-5 ft seas are noted this afternoon and will change little
through Saturday. As we get into SAt the thermal trough looks
to set up once again resulting in a threat for SCA`s across the
same waters that have them up now.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the period. Typical summertime pattern sets up with
high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland.
S-SW winds 5-15 kt Sun through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>046-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF/OJC
MARINE...RCF/CQD