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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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187 FXUS62 KMHX 061735 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 135 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Oppressive heat and humidity will remain over ENC today. High pressure will remain centered off the coast through early next week. At the same time a weakening cold front will approach from the west this weekend and eventually stalling over the Eastern Seaboard before dissipating Sunday into Monday. This will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week. A wetter pattern looks to set up mid to late week as an approaching front interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 130 PM Saturday... KEY MESSAGES: -Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for Duplin, Lenoir, Pitt, Martin, Washington, and Beaufort counties starting at 11 AM today. Hazardous apparent temperatures at or exceeding 110F possible through the afternoon and evening. -Heat Advisory remains in effect for remaining inland counties starting at 11AM with hazardous apparent temperatures between 105-110F possible through the afternoon and evening. -Chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, primarily along and west of hwy 17. Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to develop across ENC this afternoon with much of this activity developing rather quickly. SBCAPE values around 2500-4000 J/kg are noted across ENC per the latest mesoanalysis though we lack shear with deep layer shear remaining around 15 kts or less across ENC. This will help to keep this activity from organizing too much but given the ample CAPE, thunderstorms will quickly pulse up and then back down promoting at least an isolated strong wind threat with gusts up to 40-60 mph possible in the strongest storms. In addition to this, soundings are favorable for a heavy rain threat as PWATs remain well above 2 inches and although FFG is 3-4 inches across much of the area, think there is at least a low end flash flooding threat if cells can train over each other or move little in a 1-3 hr period. While this activity continues to remain scattered in nature have elected to keep SChc to Chc PoP`s in the forecast for the inland areas. Once again, as we get towards sunset precip chances begin to dwindle with the loss of daytime heating. Another hot and oppressively humid day is forecast across ENC on Saturday with heat advisory in place across much of ENC outside of the coastal locations and OBX. Temps get as high as the mid to upper 90s across our inland areas with upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and OBX. Combined with the humidity it will feel like 105-110F away from the coast and closer to 95-105 along the coast and OBX. Western counties have been upgraded to a Excessive Heat Warning, with Tds a bit higher today compared to yesterday. Yesterday some sites reached 110F for the ApparentTs along the coastal plain, so while forecast calls for max AppTs of 110, 115 is not out of the question. The potential of warmer than forecast temps was one of the factors in deciding to upgrade headlines to a warning. Also included mainland Dare Co to the heat advisory for today. Much like on Friday make sure to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and try to limit strenuous outdoor activity during the daytime. There is some bust potential for the heat forecast for today if convection starts up sooner, or becomes more widespread than expected ahead of the sea breeze. However, impacts would be substantial enough should the event play out like forecasted that the potential for dangerous heat outweighs the chance of us not reaching 110F AppTs. With the thermal gradient from colder SSTs and warm land off of NOBX, another gusty day is in store for NOBX, although slightly weaker compared to yesterday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Chances of precip will quickly diminish after sunset, leaving us with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and another warm night in store. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland, upper 70s to 80 for beaches. Guidance is hinting at a fog or low stratus threat west of hwy 17 in the early morning hours Sunday, but confidence remains low. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 AM Sat...Typical summertime pattern expected through early next week, shifting to a wetter pattern mid to late week. Temps will remain near climo. A cold front will stall or dissipate west of the area, while weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast through early next week. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast Sunday into early next week. Did increase pops a bit Sunday afternoon, especially north of the Pamlico Rvr where high res guidance shows better convective coverage, near area of better instability. Expect convective chances to be near or slightly above climo Monday and Tuesday, with better chances for more widespread coverage mid to late next week. Another front will approach late next week, possibly stalling near or over the area as weak waves develop along it which may interact with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Still too much uncertainty this far out, so will continue to cap pops at chance through the period. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat. However, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". Temps look to be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18Z Sat/... As of 130 PM Sat... Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to develop along the seabreeze aided by strong SBCAPE and deep moisture over ENC. As a result have included either tempo TS or TSRA across all terminals until about 22-23z today. MVFR ceilings/vis will be possible within any storm and gusts up to 35 kts will be possible within the strongest thunderstorms today. Outside of tstm activity expecting primarily VFR conditions with ceilings remaining around 3.5-5 kft this afternoon. As we get into tonight MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible tonight as moisture left over from afternoon shower and tstm activity will aid in the development of low stratus. Currently have PGV/ISO going down to MVFR by 03Z and then IFR by 07z while areas closer to the coast get down to MVFR ceilings by 06Z. Then have cloud cover lifting through the morning on Sun with everywhere seeing VFR ceilings by about midday. Otherwise continued S`rly winds with occasional gusts to about 15 kts will be possible this afternoon before winds ease tonight. LONG TERM /Sat afternoon through Wednesday/... As of 240 AM Sat...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the terminals. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 940 AM Sat... Only change to the forecast was to add in the Pamlico SOund and Croatan and Roanoke Sounds to the Small Craft Advisory this afternoon and evening as a thermal trough will set up inland allowing for a slightly pinched gradient across these waters allowing for frequent gusts to around 25 kts this afternoon and evening. Otherwise minimal changes to everything else. Prev Disc... Waves currently 2-4 ft and winds blowing from the SSW at 10G15kts for southern coastal waters, and 10-15G15-20kts for northern waters and sounds. Thermal trough looks to set up once again, with gustier conditions near NOBX. guidance is looking less impressive compared to yesterday, and although some gusts of 25kts are forecasted today, frequency looks to be small enough to avoid any SCA issuance at this time. If guidance trends stronger, will likely have to issue an SCA, but confidence in consistent gusts >25kts remains low. Seas fall to 2-3 feet tonight, and SW winds gust to near 15 kts. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 240 AM Sat...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected through the period. Typical summertime pattern sets up with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt Sun through Wed with seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 07/06 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 98/1969 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 95/1969 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 100/2010 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 97/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 105/1900 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 99/1977 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029- 044-045-079-080-090-091. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ046-047-081- 092-094-193-194-198. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 150-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/RCF MARINE...CQD/RJ CLIMATE...MHX