Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
596 FNUS76 KMFR 050354 FWSMFR Spot Forecast for Shelly Fire...USFS National Weather Service MEDFORD OR 854 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 PDT on July 05. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure settles in. There is major heat risk over the next three to four days, and all people could be susceptible to heat related illness. On Friday, there is some question about which will dominate, the general wind of the local wind. For any generally south aspect, I would expect the diurnal wind dominates with upslope winds for much of the day. For more shaded, westerly aspects, I would expect upslope winds only on the lower half of the ridges, with the general north-northeast winds dominating. The general wind from the north-northeast should also dominate at any ridge top. The hottest day will be Saturday with the upper ridge shifting eastward Sunday into Monday. The shifting ridge will lead to enhanced winds in the afternoon Saturday and Sunday, with critical conditions possible as a result. As a result of stronger winds, the general wind will dominate, generally being from the west-northwest. In addition to the critical hot, dry and windy conditions, the lower atmosphere will be very dry and unstable; and a plume dominated fire is possible if fire related conditions are met. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Max temperature.....85-90 degrees. Min humidity........Around 11 percent. Eye level winds.....Northeast around 2 mph. Wind (20 ft)........Northeast around 5 mph. Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North around 7 mph. CWR.................0 percent. LAL.................1. .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Min temperature.....67-70 degrees. Max humidity........Around 20 percent. Eye level winds.....North around 2 mph in the evening becoming down-slope/down-valley except at the ridge tops and east aspects where a northeast wind of 1-3 mph is possible. Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming down-slope/down-valley. East aspects and ridge tops may observe a northeast wind of 2-5 mph is possible. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North around 7 mph. CWR.................0 percent. LAL.................1. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Max temperature.....95-100 degrees. Min humidity........Around 10 percent. Eye level winds.....Light down-slope/down-valley winds becoming northwest around 3 mph in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Light down-slope/down-valley winds becoming northwest 7 to 14 mph in the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL increasing to 11000 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph. CWR.................0 percent. LAL.................1. $$ Forecaster...MILES Requested by...Frank Henderson Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2417394.0/MFR .DELDT 07/04/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL frank.henderson@usda.gov