Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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425 FXUS66 KMFR 100534 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1034 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...Updated AVIATION discussion... .DISCUSSION...The forecast remains on track for the night as hot and dry weather continues under a stubborn upper ridge. Smoke from the Shelly and Salt Creek fires are still affecting air quality across most of northern California and southern Oregon, and will continue to do so through Wednesday. A Heat Advisory east of the Cascades and an Excessive Heat Warning for west of the Cascades and south of the Umpqua Divide remain in place through Wednesday as well. And for areas that aren`t under any heat product, temperatures are still high enough that individuals vulnerable to heat should use extra caution if spending time outside. -TAD && .AVIATION...10/06Z TAFS...IFR conditions are present at North Bend and levels at Brookings are down to LIFR under a layer of marine stratus. North Bend may lower to LIFR some time tonight into Wednesday morning. The layer will stick around until late morning or early afternoon, with gusty northerly winds following. Inland areas will remain VFR levels, with afternoon winds returning Wednesday afternoon. Smoke from fires in western Siskiyou County and central Jackson County may locally lower visibilities in those areas and into Douglas or Klamath counties as well. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 900 PM Tuesday, July 9th, 2024...A thermal trough will strengthen tonight through Thursday resulting in increasing north winds and elevated seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop this evening through Thursday morning for areas south of Cape Blanco, with moderate north winds and steep wind driven seas. Winds and seas increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with gales and very steep seas expected from Gold Beach south beginning Wednesday evening then for areas south of Cape Blanco Thursday afternoon and night. North of Cape Blanco, winds will be weaker today but increase Wednesday evening and Thursday with gusty, north winds and steep seas likely. Moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas may linger on Friday. Then winds and seas are expected to gradually lower Saturday and Sunday. -CC && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued 200 PM Monday July 8, 2024... ...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible all week... Our trend of hot, breezy, low humidities, and occasionally unstable afternoon conditions will persist through this weekend. Our afternoons are forecast to be above normal with deep mixing. Fortunately the wind speeds are not too crazy this week, but they certainly will be on the breezy side around 10-15 mph. Single digit RH values are also forecast during the afternoon hours across the eastside this week. These factors during this prolonged drying stretch will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions nearly every day this week. There are going to be a couple hours here and there with criteria being met, but this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon may fall just short of actually reaching criteria. While no official warnings are out now, it will be very borderline today and tomorrow afternoon. Conditions worsen as the week progresses, and we will likely see Red Flag Warnings coming to fruition as early as Thursday. That said, if conditions change now through Thursday, we could see these conditions sooner as we are already close each afternoon of reaching critical thresholds. There is some relief from this heat by mid-week with a slight cool down, but the reality is that temperatures are still going to be on the warm side. Much of the area hasn`t received much rainfall, so fuels are only going to worsen as this prolonged drying stretch continues with above normal temperatures. The heat is obviously of importance for those outside fighting the fires. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 555 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024/ DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over most of the forecast area. The exception is for marine stratus along the coast from Cape Blanco south and some cumulus build ups along the Cascades and higher terrain east of the Cascades. Smoke from the Shelly and Salt Creek fires are mainly concentrated in the vicinity of these fires and will be the case for the next hour, then once the typical northwest flow kicks in, the smoke from the Salt Creek fire will get transported southeast towards Klamath Falls, but not should not be in Klamath Falls proper. Also the smoke from the Shelly Fire will also get pushed southeast late this afternoon and evening. In the meantime, dry and hot weather will continue through the end of the week. Afternoon temperatures will be at their highest today for most inland locations, with a slow downward trend tomorrow through Friday, although they will still be near or at triple digits for most interior west side valley locations and low to mid 90s east of the Cascades. The one notable improvement will be cooler overnight lows the latter part of the week. However. overnight lows tonight and Wednesday night will be similar to this morning (maybe a degree or two lower). The weather situation this weekend will need to be watched carefully. This will especially be the case along and east of the Cascades and northern California. The upper ridge that`s been over the area for the past week is expected to shift to the four corners this weekend. At the same time an upper low will develop off the California coast Saturday. This will result in a southerly flow pushing into our area and could tap into a bit of monsoonal moisture. The amount of moisture is limited, but the pattern that`s setting up is a bit concerning in that it typically results in an elevated risk for isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades and northern California. For Saturday, the biggest risk for isolated storms should be mainly confined to Lake and southeast Modoc County in the afternoon and evening hours. This is by no means a slam dunk, but at the same time it cannot be discounted. Sunday, the situation should be more favorable for isolated storms. Some evidence supports most of the action could end up northeast of our forecast area. However, there` still sufficient evidence to suggest the threat at risk for isolated storms Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening will be in Lake, eastern Klamath and eastern Modoc County. Once we get by this weekend, a dry and stable southwest flow will return with any threat for storms ending, but afternoon temperatures will still remain above normal for the interior. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ023>026. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ029>031. CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ080>082. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ083>085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning from 8 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356- 376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ376. && $$