162
FXUS62 KMFL 051139
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
739 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The SE US ridge will remain the main mid-lvl feature of interest through
the short-term period, although it will continue to weaken and erode as
troughing shifts into the central/NE US and a closed low over the
Atlantic retrogrades towards it. Synoptic low-lvl flow will remain weak,
favoring sea breeze-driven circulations, and the inland progression of
both the Gulf and Atlantic breezes. Additionally, moisture will pool over
the area with PWATs increasing back into the 2-2.2 inch range.
Consequently expect greater storm coverage today relative to yesterday,
with the focus largely being just inland of the coasts along both sea
breezes with initial storm propagation towards the Interior, and then
potentially propagating back eastward late in the afternoon. Given the
increased moisture and lack of deep-layer steering flow, localized
hydro concerns will be possible with localized accumulations in the
3-5 inch range being advertised by hi-res guidance. The bulk of guidance
keeps the heaviest accumulations focused over the Interior, which would
help alleviate any hydro concerns, however, guidance often initiates
convection too far inland in these regimes so would not rule out the potential
for heavy rain along the edges of the east coast metro.

Although precipitation and convective cloud cover should be more
widespread this afternoon than Thursday, the weakening of the synoptic
easterly flow will allow for generally warmer temperatures than Thursday
(particularly over the east coast) so yet another day of peak heat
indices 105-110 (perhaps even locally higher in the Interior/west) is
expected. Thus the heat advisory remains in effect for the whole area
through 8 PM.

Saturday will feature a similar synoptic pattern, although a small
wrinkle will be that drier mid-lvl air will impinge on northeastern
portions of the area on the fringes of a cut-off low over the Atlantic,
which could focus the best rain chances over the southern half of the
peninsula (with perhaps even a weak northwesterly component of the
low-lvl flow, pushing things into the MD/Broward vicinity later in the day).
Once again the two concerns of the day will be localized flooding due to
the abundant moisture and slow storm motions, and excessive heat with
advisory conditions possible once again, particularly over the north and
west where precip coverage may be somewhat reduced.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The resilient SE ridge will hold serve through the extended period,
locking us in our own tropical bubble of sorts and keeping any
mid-latitude influences (i.e. fronts) north of the area. The low-lvl flow
will generally be S-SE, albeit likely modified at times by sea-breeze
circulations, as SFL remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high
pressure. The progged SAL plume early next week has shifted a bit further
west with the latest guidance, so rain chances may remain near climo
through much of next week with perhaps a focus over northern and western
areas given the S-SErly flow. Naturally with only the weak ridge in place
and the lack of a defined SAL push, hydro will remain a concern each
afternoon. The other concern will be heat, which will be largely
dependent upon the coverage and initiation time of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Light easterly winds return later this morning, along with
chances for VCTS near all sites starting 18Z. Most guidance shows
activity staying inland East Coast sites but some rogue showers
and storms could drift eastward, resulting in sub-VFR conditions.
KAPF could potentially experience MVFR/IFR conditions after 20Z;
short-fuse TEMPOs could be needed. VFR conditions with light and
variable winds return after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters
through the end of the week as weak ridging prevails, although winds could
shift to the W-SW over the near-shore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze
develops. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms could develop each day, resulting in locally higher winds
and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  79  92  80 /  40  20  40  20
West Kendall     94  76  92  77 /  50  30  40  20
Opa-Locka        94  79  93  79 /  40  30  40  10
Homestead        91  78  91  79 /  40  30  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  79  90  80 /  40  20  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  92  79  92  80 /  40  20  40  10
Pembroke Pines   95  78  94  80 /  40  30  40  10
West Palm Beach  92  78  92  78 /  40  20  30  10
Boca Raton       92  79  92  79 /  40  20  40  10
Naples           92  79  92  79 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Culver