895
FXUS62 KMFL 081947
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Surface high pressure holds over southern Florida from the
Atlantic while a mid-level low drifts southwestward through mid-
week. The remnants of Beryl will become absorbed by a longwave
trough over the central United States while will pinch the
Atlantic high pressure eastward.

Besides these features, a Saharan Air Layer will be present over
and around the area for a couple of days. With that comes a
suppression of convective coverage. Accordingly, have trimmed back
rain chances for Tuesday a bit closer to climatology compared to
the previously higher PoPs that have been far more common the last
few days. While activity today should be later to start, there
should be a focus around the State Road 80 corridor and the Lake
Okeechobee region later this afternoon into the evening. A similar
northerly convective focus is expected on Tuesday as well.

Today may be the warmer of the two days with heat index values
dipping for Tuesday. Values will still range from 105 to 110 which
will likely require consideration of a Heat Advisory for portions,
if not all, of South Florida again on Tuesday. Overnight lows will
struggle to fall below 80 in many areas and the urban heat
islands may not fall below the lower 80s tonight which provides
little relief from the heat illness risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Models begin the long term with a remnant cut-off low moving over
the Florida Keys and the southern tip of the peninsula, while the
rest of the state remains under the influence of the SW periphery of
high pressure. This synoptic setup will keep a weather pattern
dominated by weak sfc flow and lingering moisture across SoFlo.

For Wednesday, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms in afternoon, with sea breeze circulations becoming
the main focal point for deep convection over land during the early
afternoon hours. The bulk of the weather should then favor interior
portions of SoFlo during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Storm motion could remain somewhat erratic as outflow boundaries
spread across the area. By Thursday, models show a strengthening of
the Atlantic high, which brings back a more robust easterly wind
regime. Thus, expect afternoon convection to favor the Gulf coast
metro areas, with some late morning/early afternoon showers or
isolated storms along the east coast metro areas.

Temperatures during the long term should remain warm, with afternoon
highs reaching the lower 90s across most areas and heat indices in
the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Light southerly flow will focus convection from south to north
with a late afternoon/early evening focus around Lake Okeechobee
and PBI. Short-fused AMDs likely will be needed for bouts of
IFR/LIFR at directly impacted terminals. Convection should
diminish late evening into the overnight with VFR returning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail
across all local waters through Tuesday. Seas will remain in the
1-3 ft range through this period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each afternoon,
and winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers
and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  80  91 /  10  40  30  50
West Kendall     79  93  77  92 /  10  40  20  50
Opa-Locka        81  93  79  92 /  20  40  30  50
Homestead        80  92  79  91 /  10  30  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  79  91 /  20  50  30  50
Pembroke Pines   81  94  79  93 /  20  40  30  50
West Palm Beach  79  92  77  91 /  30  60  40  60
Boca Raton       80  92  78  91 /  30  50  30  50
Naples           80  93  79  91 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAG