211
FXUS62 KMFL 070652
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
252 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A slight change in the prevailing synoptic pattern develops today
with a frontal boundary extending across the southeastern US
and a mid-level low meandering over the western Atlantic ocean.
In response, surface winds will shift from the south, ushering
in deeper tropical moisture over the area (with PWATs forecast
to be nearing 2 inches). This regime will support an increase
in shower and thunderstorm coverage today and tomorrow
afternoon, mainly along northern portions of the CWA.
With generally light steering flow, slow moving storms could
once again lead to concerns for localized flooding each evening.

With high temperatures and enhanced tropical moisture in
the area, oppressive heat will once again be a concern this
afternoon, especially if convection does not develop until the
late afternoon as the high-res models suggest. Current guidance
shows today`s high temperatures reaching the low-mid 90s
across much of the region, with peak heat indices in the 105-110
degree range. As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for
all counties from 10AM through 6PM. Overnight temperatures
will remain warm, providing little relief from the heat, with lows
in the mid 70s over the interior and in the low 80s along
the immediate coastlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Light ESE flow develops again on Tuesday as weak ridging is
re-established over SE CONUS. Chances for shower and
thunderstorm development each afternoon will be driven by
the sea breezes, with convection initiating over the local waters
and the East Coast late each morning, shifting towards the
interior and West Coast in the afternoon and early evening.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the potential approach of a
plume of Saharan dust over the region; the latest model runs
show this airmass moving west over the Gulf of Mexico, but
any changes in this solution could lead to drier conditions
for South Florida midweek.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain warm, with
high temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most
areas and heat indices in the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and
variable winds will increase out of the SSE by early Sunday
afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will develop near the
terminals this afternoon, however, most of the convection should
remain over the interior. Periods of sub-VFR conditions cannot be
ruled out later this afternoon mainly at KPBI near storms. At
KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW Sunday afternoon as a Gulf
breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Light to moderate southerly winds will prevail across all
local waters through Monday. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft
range through this period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop over the local waters each afternoon, and winds
and waves could be locally higher in and around showers
and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  80  93  80 /  40  20  40  20
West Kendall     93  78  94  78 /  40  20  30  10
Opa-Locka        93  80  94  80 /  50  20  40  20
Homestead        92  80  92  80 /  40  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  91  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  92  80  93  80 /  40  20  50  20
Pembroke Pines   95  80  95  80 /  40  20  40  20
West Palm Beach  93  79  93  78 /  50  20  60  30
Boca Raton       93  80  93  79 /  50  20  50  20
Naples           92  80  92  80 /  60  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CWC