Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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508 FXUS62 KMFL 010640 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 240 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Monday will be warm and unsettled as a mid-level trough lingers over the region. Aloft, an upper-level low could also move in from the Bahamas which could provide some additional support for more stout convection. At the surface, South Florida remains on the periphery of Atlantic high pressure with the ridge axis sitting around Lake Okeechobee. The wind becoming more south-southeasterly will help focus afternoon convection from just inland of the Atlantic into Southwest Florida with a focus along the State Road 80 corridor/Lake Okeechobee possible by late afternoon/early evening on Monday. A south to north or southeast to northwest movement of convective focus is likely through the day. Upper 80s to lower 90s for high temperatures continues though heat index values climb back above 100 across most of the area. Mid-level high pressure begins to slide east from the southern plains towards the southeastern United States on Tuesday. The high will not build all the way into southern Florida, therefore allowing the unsettled, diurnally-driven storm pattern to continue for another day with a southeasterly wind flow. Temperatures will build a few degrees compared to Monday with heat index values rising accordingly to where a Heat Advisory cannot be ruled out for portions of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Abundant tropical moisture will remain over the region as large- scale high pressure builds in over Florida on the surface and the southeastern United States aloft. Hurricane Beryl is forecast to remain south of the area thanks to this high pressure pattern as it moves westerly to west-northwesterly this week. This will mean that diurnally-driven sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will be the main story through the week along with continued warmth. Heat index values will quietly creep back up through the week with the potential for Heat Advisories returning. Easterly to southeasterly wind flow will favor morning convection around the Atlantic moving inland and focused over the interior and Southwest Florida by the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Forecast uncertainty increases near the end of the period where bursts of tropical moisture will need to be monitored as easterly activity progresses across the Atlantic basin. The National Hurricane Center`s Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOAT) does depict an area of disturbed weather behind Beryl that they are monitoring for potential tropical development over the week. It is too early to time or determine the extent of the tropical moisture. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Light/vrb winds will gradually become ESE around 5-10 kt, though Gulf sea breeze may cause a brief WSW wind shift near/over APF. Greatest convective coverage generally expected over interior and west coast today, where short-fused TEMPOs may be necessary. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will gradually become southeasterly over the Atlantic waters during the early portion of the week. Over the Gulf waters, winds will become south to southwesterly during this time frame. Seas over the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less during the early portion of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day across the local waters. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around showers and storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The risk of rip currents may increase across the Atlantic beaches towards the middle of the week as onshore flow increases. Swell from any potential surface low pressure areas that develop in the open northern Atlantic near a mid-level trough will also need to be monitored in case it materializes and could increase the rip current risk later in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 91 80 / 60 40 70 30 West Kendall 90 77 91 78 / 70 30 70 30 Opa-Locka 91 79 91 80 / 60 30 70 30 Homestead 89 80 90 81 / 60 30 70 30 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 81 / 60 40 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 90 81 / 60 30 70 30 Pembroke Pines 91 80 93 81 / 60 30 70 30 West Palm Beach 91 78 91 80 / 70 30 70 30 Boca Raton 91 80 91 80 / 60 30 70 30 Naples 89 78 91 78 / 80 30 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...SRB