Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
499 FXUS62 KMFL 021854 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 254 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Upper-level (H500) ridging will gradually expand further over the southeastern CONUS, allowing for an easterly to southeasterly mean steering flow to prevail across South Florida. Boundary layer (SFC-850 mb) winds from the southeast will remain consistent, leading to the greatest convective coverage over the interior and southwestern portions of the CWFA. However, convection may drift closer to the east coast, particularly where a westward augmentation in the steering flow materializes. The synoptic pattern is expected to remain intact through Thursday with little deviation over the region. A few subtle low- level inverted troughs could bring a surge of moisture, leading to intermittent rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing at atypical hours, not following the typical diurnal cycle. These could cause nuisance rainfall and potentially localized flooding. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate east coast to the low 90s, with convective debris limiting higher temperatures. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The broad mid-level ridge will persist as the dominant synoptic feature over South Florida for most of the week. At the surface, South Florida will lie on the periphery of a high-pressure area centered in the western Atlantic. This will maintain an east to southeasterly wind flow through the mid and latter portions of the week. Enough moisture will continue to advect into the region, with model soundings indicating moderately favorable precipitable water (PWAT) values. Consequently, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening as sea breezes move inland and interact. The prevailing east to southeasterly wind flow will cause most convective activity to initiate near the east coast metro areas in the early afternoon, gradually shifting towards the interior and west coast later in the afternoon and into the early evening. The primary hazard will be the potential for localized flooding due to heavy downpours, as storm motion will remain slow. Temperatures throughout the week will remain warm, with high temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most areas. Heat index values may range between 105 and 110 during the late morning and afternoon hours. However, these values are unlikely to persist long enough to meet advisory criteria due to the higher chances of showers and thunderstorms. Continuous monitoring will be necessary as the week progresses. Some tropical moisture will advect around the southern periphery of the Bermuda High and approach South Florida this weekend, slightly increasing rain chances across the area. The typical diurnal summertime storm pattern will persist, with most convection concentrating along the sea breezes in the afternoon and evening, while overnight storms will predominantly occur over the local waters. The increased cloud cover and higher rain chances will moderate temperatures, keeping them closer to normal and mitigating any extreme heat, providing a sense of relief. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 MVFR to VFR ceilings prevail this afternoon as scattered thunderstorms persist around east coast sites. Most activity should push inland towards interior South Florida through the afternoon. Chance for a few isolated showers during the early morning hours although not quite enough confidence to include in TAFs with this update. Southeasterly flow this afternoon will become easterly by late Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Light to moderate ESE flow and low seas will prevail through much of the week. Scattered storms over the Gulf Stream are expected each morning, eventually developing over the Gulf waters in the && .BEACHES... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The risk of rip currents will increase heading into Wed/Thu time && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 91 80 91 / 40 40 10 40 West Kendall 78 92 78 92 / 40 40 10 40 Opa-Locka 80 92 80 92 / 40 40 10 40 Homestead 80 90 80 90 / 30 40 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 81 90 / 40 40 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 81 90 81 90 / 40 40 10 40 Pembroke Pines 80 92 80 94 / 40 40 10 40 West Palm Beach 80 91 80 91 / 30 40 0 30 Boca Raton 80 92 80 91 / 30 40 10 30 Naples 78 93 77 93 / 40 60 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....CMP AVIATION...Rizzuto