389
FXUS62 KMFL 071613
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1213 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Beryl in the northwestern Gulf, a frontal boundary stretched across
the Appalachians and the southeastern United States, and an Atlantic
mid-level low off the Carolinas are the main synoptic scale features
for the short term forecast period. Light southerly wind flow with a
heavy influence from the diurnal sea breeze is expected. Ample
amounts of tropical moisture being transported into the region along
the southerly flow should permit healthy convective coverage this
afternoon and again on Monday.

Hot temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will combine
with the lack of breeze to permit heat index values to climb above
105 across the region both today and again on Monday with a Heat
Advisory necessary today and one likely needed for Monday. Some
pockets of South Florida could see the heat index exceed 110 on late
Monday morning into the afternoon hours. Heat illness will remain a
threat to anyone conducting outdoor activities or labor.

While many of the showers and thunderstorms may not have the
environmental profile or support aloft to create hail or severe wind
gusts, strong wind gusts and frequent to excessive lightning cannot
be ruled out with storms. The slow-moving nature of storms will also
provide the potential for excessive rainfall accumulations that
could saturate a localized area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Light ESE flow develops again on Tuesday as weak ridging is
re-established over SE CONUS. Chances for shower and
thunderstorm development each afternoon will be driven by
the sea breezes, with convection initiating over the local waters
and the East Coast late each morning, shifting towards the
interior and West Coast in the afternoon and early evening.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the potential approach of a
plume of Saharan dust over the region; the latest model runs
show this airmass moving west over the Gulf of Mexico, but
any changes in this solution could lead to drier conditions
for South Florida midweek.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain warm, with
high temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most
areas and heat indices in the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Sub-VFR possible with any showers and storms that come near
terminals and short-fused AMDs for IFR/LIFR are likely today as the
sea breezes advance inland. A lull is possible late evening into the
early overnight but an early morning return to the convection is
possible on Monday. Southerly flow will be fairly light through the
period outside of convective wind gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Light to moderate southerly winds will prevail across all local
waters through Monday. Seas will remain in the 1 to 3 ft range to
start the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the local waters each afternoon, and winds and waves could be
locally higher in and around showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  94  80  91 /  20  40  20  50
West Kendall     80  95  78  92 /  20  40  10  40
Opa-Locka        81  95  80  92 /  30  40  20  50
Homestead        81  93  80  90 /  30  20  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  81  93  80  90 /  30  40  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  80  90 /  20  50  20  50
Pembroke Pines   82  96  80  93 /  30  40  20  50
West Palm Beach  80  94  78  90 /  20  60  30  60
Boca Raton       80  94  79  91 /  20  50  30  60
Naples           81  93  80  92 /  30  40  10  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...RAG