906
FXUS62 KMFL 031641
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1241 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Stout mid-level ridging (~594 dam) will continue to expand
across the southeastern United States through the short term
as surface highs build inland from the western Atlantic and
the Gulf of Mexico. Easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail
during this period, with near-climo moisture values in place
on Wednesday (PWAT values between 1.7-1.9 inches). This
regime will support the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms over interior and southwestern FL during
the late afternoon hours as the sea breezes develop
and meet inland.

Drier mid-level air could filter in over the area on Thursday
along Hurricane Beryl`s northern flank as the system approaches
the Yucatan peninsula. This dry air intrusion could help inhibit
widespread convective development across the region, with
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage
(PoPs ~50-60%) over the interior and southwest FL during
the afternoon and evening.

Temperatures each day will generally range from the upper 80s
along the immediate East Coast to the low 90s across interior
and southwest FL. The corresponding heat indices have climbed
into the 105-110 degree F range across southern-most portions of
the peninsula this afternoon; as a result, a Heat Advisory is in
effect for Miami-Dade, Broward, mainland Monroe and Collier
counties through 8pm Thursday. Overnight temperatures will remain
warm, providing little relief from the heat, with lows in the mid
70s over the interior and in the low 80s along the immediate
coastlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...

The aforementioned ridging will hold over the area through
Friday-Saturday, flattening out over the weekend as a mid-level
trough develops over the Great Lakes region. This will support
generally with easterly to southeasterly winds prevailing through
the start of the weekend, becoming more southerly as we
start the new week.

Chances for shower and thunderstorm development each
afternoon will be driven by the sea breezes, with convection
initiating over the local waters and the East Coast late each
morning, shifting towards the interior and West Coast in the
afternoon and early evening. Models suggest a surge of
moisture could approach the region over the weekend, thus
enhancing the chances for heavy rainfall and higher coverage
on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain warm, with
high temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most areas.
Heat index values may range between 105 and 110 during
the late morning and afternoon hours. However, there is low
confidence regarding persistence and thus continuous
monitoring will need to determine the potential need for
any heat-related products.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible near
east coast terminals over the next couple of hours. The threat of
storms will then shift towards KAPF later this afternoon and
evening. Winds will generally be easterly around 10 to 15kts during the
day, except at KAPF where a shift to the W-NW is anticipated this
afternoon. A similar pattern is expected during the day on
Thursday. Slight chance for a few showers during the morning hours
tomorrow, although not nearly enough confidence to include in this
update.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local
waters through the end of the week as ridging prevails. Seas
will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms could develop each afternoon, resulting in
locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the east coast
beaches through Thursday as moderate easterly (onshore) flow
prevails.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  92  80  92 /  10  40  10  40
West Kendall     79  92  78  93 /  10  40  10  40
Opa-Locka        80  92  80  94 /  10  40  10  40
Homestead        80  91  80  92 /  10  40  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  81  89  80  90 /  10  30  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  92 /  10  30  10  40
Pembroke Pines   80  94  80  94 /  10  40  10  40
West Palm Beach  80  92  78  92 /  10  30  10  50
Boca Raton       80  91  79  92 /  10  30  10  40
Naples           77  94  79  92 /  30  60  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ069>075-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV/Rizzuto
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Rizzuto