Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
162 FXUS62 KMFL 051139 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 739 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The SE US ridge will remain the main mid-lvl feature of interest through the short-term period, although it will continue to weaken and erode as troughing shifts into the central/NE US and a closed low over the Atlantic retrogrades towards it. Synoptic low-lvl flow will remain weak, favoring sea breeze-driven circulations, and the inland progression of both the Gulf and Atlantic breezes. Additionally, moisture will pool over the area with PWATs increasing back into the 2-2.2 inch range. Consequently expect greater storm coverage today relative to yesterday, with the focus largely being just inland of the coasts along both sea breezes with initial storm propagation towards the Interior, and then potentially propagating back eastward late in the afternoon. Given the increased moisture and lack of deep-layer steering flow, localized hydro concerns will be possible with localized accumulations in the 3-5 inch range being advertised by hi-res guidance. The bulk of guidance keeps the heaviest accumulations focused over the Interior, which would help alleviate any hydro concerns, however, guidance often initiates convection too far inland in these regimes so would not rule out the potential for heavy rain along the edges of the east coast metro. Although precipitation and convective cloud cover should be more widespread this afternoon than Thursday, the weakening of the synoptic easterly flow will allow for generally warmer temperatures than Thursday (particularly over the east coast) so yet another day of peak heat indices 105-110 (perhaps even locally higher in the Interior/west) is expected. Thus the heat advisory remains in effect for the whole area through 8 PM. Saturday will feature a similar synoptic pattern, although a small wrinkle will be that drier mid-lvl air will impinge on northeastern portions of the area on the fringes of a cut-off low over the Atlantic, which could focus the best rain chances over the southern half of the peninsula (with perhaps even a weak northwesterly component of the low-lvl flow, pushing things into the MD/Broward vicinity later in the day). Once again the two concerns of the day will be localized flooding due to the abundant moisture and slow storm motions, and excessive heat with advisory conditions possible once again, particularly over the north and west where precip coverage may be somewhat reduced. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The resilient SE ridge will hold serve through the extended period, locking us in our own tropical bubble of sorts and keeping any mid-latitude influences (i.e. fronts) north of the area. The low-lvl flow will generally be S-SE, albeit likely modified at times by sea-breeze circulations, as SFL remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. The progged SAL plume early next week has shifted a bit further west with the latest guidance, so rain chances may remain near climo through much of next week with perhaps a focus over northern and western areas given the S-SErly flow. Naturally with only the weak ridge in place and the lack of a defined SAL push, hydro will remain a concern each afternoon. The other concern will be heat, which will be largely dependent upon the coverage and initiation time of precipitation. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 736 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Light easterly winds return later this morning, along with chances for VCTS near all sites starting 18Z. Most guidance shows activity staying inland East Coast sites but some rogue showers and storms could drift eastward, resulting in sub-VFR conditions. KAPF could potentially experience MVFR/IFR conditions after 20Z; short-fuse TEMPOs could be needed. VFR conditions with light and variable winds return after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters through the end of the week as weak ridging prevails, although winds could shift to the W-SW over the near-shore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop each day, resulting in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 92 80 / 40 20 40 20 West Kendall 94 76 92 77 / 50 30 40 20 Opa-Locka 94 79 93 79 / 40 30 40 10 Homestead 91 78 91 79 / 40 30 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 90 80 / 40 20 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 92 80 / 40 20 40 10 Pembroke Pines 95 78 94 80 / 40 30 40 10 West Palm Beach 92 78 92 78 / 40 20 30 10 Boca Raton 92 79 92 79 / 40 20 40 10 Naples 92 79 92 79 / 60 50 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...Culver