Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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378 FXUS62 KMFL 051721 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 121 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The SE US ridge will remain the main mid-lvl feature of interest through the short-term period, although it will continue to weaken and erode as troughing shifts into the central/NE US and a closed low over the Atlantic retrogrades towards it. Synoptic low-lvl flow will remain weak, favoring sea breeze-driven circulations, and the inland progression of both the Gulf and Atlantic breezes. Additionally, moisture will pool over the area with PWATs increasing back into the 2-2.2 inch range. Consequently expect greater storm coverage today relative to yesterday, with the focus largely being just inland of the coasts along both sea breezes with initial storm propagation towards the Interior, and then potentially propagating back eastward late in the afternoon. Given the increased moisture and lack of deep-layer steering flow, localized hydro concerns will be possible with localized accumulations in the 3-5 inch range being advertised by hi-res guidance. The bulk of guidance keeps the heaviest accumulations focused over the Interior, which would help alleviate any hydro concerns, however, guidance often initiates convection too far inland in these regimes so would not rule out the potential for heavy rain along the edges of the east coast metro. Although precipitation and convective cloud cover should be more widespread this afternoon, the weakening of the synoptic easterly flow will allow for generally warmer temperatures (particularly over the east coast) so yet another day of peak heat indices 105-110 (perhaps even locally higher in the Interior/west) is expected. Thus, the heat advisory remains in effect for the whole area through 8 PM. Saturday will feature a similar synoptic pattern, although a small wrinkle will be that drier mid-lvl air will impinge on northeastern portions of the area on the fringes of a cut-off low over the Atlantic, which could focus the best rain chances over the southern half of the peninsula (with perhaps even a weak northwesterly component of the low-lvl flow, pushing things into the MD/Broward vicinity later in the day). Once again the two concerns of the day will be localized flooding due to the abundant moisture and slow storm motions, and excessive heat, particularly over the north and west areas where precip coverage may be somewhat reduced. Heat Advisories may be needed again for Saturday afternoon in some areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The resilient SE ridge will hold serve through the extended period, locking us in our own tropical bubble of sorts and keeping any mid-latitude influences (i.e. fronts) north of the area. The low-lvl flow will generally be S-SE, albeit likely modified at times by sea-breeze circulations, as SFL remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. The progged SAL plume early next week has shifted a bit further west with the latest guidance, so rain chances may remain near climo through much of next week with perhaps a focus over northern and western areas given the S-SErly flow. Naturally with only the weak ridge in place and the lack of a defined SAL push, hydro will remain a concern each afternoon. The other concern will be heat, which will be largely dependent upon the coverage and initiation time of precipitation. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Increasing convective activity the next few hours with chances for VCTS near all sites through the evening. Most guidance shows activity initiating just inland of East Coast sites, but some rogue showers and storms could drift eastward. Short-fuse TEMPOs could be needed. Light easterly flow at the east coast sites, with light westerly flow at APF. Generally VFR conditions with light and variable winds return after 02Z. Chances for VCSH/VCTS return Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters into the weekend as ridging prevails, although winds could shift to the W-SW over the near-shore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop each day, resulting in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 92 79 92 / 30 40 20 40 West Kendall 76 92 77 92 / 30 40 20 40 Opa-Locka 78 93 79 92 / 30 40 20 40 Homestead 78 91 79 90 / 30 40 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 80 92 / 20 30 20 40 Pembroke Pines 78 94 79 94 / 30 30 20 40 West Palm Beach 76 92 78 92 / 10 30 10 40 Boca Raton 78 92 79 92 / 10 30 10 40 Naples 79 92 79 92 / 40 60 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...Culver