917
FXUS62 KMFL 052329
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Latest forecast update yielded a subtle drop in PoPs along the
east coast tomorrow afternoon, as easterly flow keeps convection
focused over the interior. Expect a convective pattern fairly
similar to what was experienced today, as scattered/numerous
showers and thunderstorms materialize over interior and southwest
portions of the region. Temperatures again remain warm and
uncomfortable (heat indices generally ranging from 102 to 107F),
but should remain below heat advisory criteria. With that said, it
could be a close call particularly for western portions of the
region - and thus cannot rule out the potential issuance for a
heat advisory in the next update cycle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The SE US ridge will remain the main mid-lvl feature of interest
through the short-term period, although it will continue to weaken
and erode as troughing shifts into the central/NE US and a closed
low over the Atlantic retrogrades towards it. Synoptic low-lvl
flow will remain weak, favoring sea breeze-driven circulations,
and the inland progression of both the Gulf and Atlantic breezes.
Additionally, moisture will pool over the area with PWATs
increasing back into the 2-2.2 inch range. Consequently expect
greater storm coverage today relative to yesterday, with the focus
largely being just inland of the coasts along both sea breezes
with initial storm propagation towards the Interior, and then
potentially propagating back eastward late in the afternoon. Given
the increased moisture and lack of deep-layer steering flow,
localized hydro concerns will be possible with localized
accumulations in the 3-5 inch range being advertised by hi-res
guidance. The bulk of guidance keeps the heaviest accumulations
focused over the Interior, which would help alleviate any hydro
concerns, however, guidance often initiates convection too far
inland in these regimes so would not rule out the potential for
heavy rain along the edges of the east coast metro.

Although precipitation and convective cloud cover should be more
widespread this afternoon, the weakening of the synoptic easterly
flow will allow for generally warmer temperatures (particularly
over the east coast) so yet another day of peak heat indices
105-110 (perhaps even locally higher in the Interior/west) is
expected. Thus, the heat advisory remains in effect for the whole
area through 8 PM.

Saturday will feature a similar synoptic pattern, although a
small wrinkle will be that drier mid-lvl air will impinge on
northeastern portions of the area on the fringes of a cut-off low
over the Atlantic, which could focus the best rain chances over
the southern half of the peninsula (with perhaps even a weak
northwesterly component of the low-lvl flow, pushing things into
the MD/Broward vicinity later in the day). Once again the two
concerns of the day will be localized flooding due to the abundant
moisture and slow storm motions, and excessive heat, particularly
over the north and west areas where precip coverage may be
somewhat reduced. Heat Advisories may be needed again for Saturday
afternoon in some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The typical summertime pattern of showers and thunderstorms will
persist through the extended period, with minor adjustments in the
synoptic setup around South Florida. As we enter the work week, mid-
level ridging over the Western Atlantic will continue to strengthen
over the peninsula, maintaining southeasterly flow at the surface as
South Florida remains on the southwestern periphery of the Atlantic
High. Models indicate the arrival of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume
over the CWA on Monday and Tuesday. This SAL intrusion is expected
to result in a noticeable reduction in PWATs and 700mb RH early next
week. Should this drier air materialize, it will likely play a key
role in reducing the coverage and intensity of rainfall. By mid-
week, the SAL will exit, allowing deeper tropical moisture to advect
into the CWA in its wake. Despite the potential intrusion of dry air
early next week, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the extended forecast. Convection will primarily develop along the
East Coast sea breeze front, pushing inland during the afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will remain warm, with highs reaching the low
to mid-90s and heat indices exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon.
Regarding sensible weather, Sunday poses a forecast challenge.
Cooler temperatures aloft combined with steeper mid-level lapse
rates ahead of the drier air may slightly increase the potential
for isolated severe thunderstorms over the CWA, particularly near
the Gulf Breeze along the southwest Florida coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the TAF sites
through the forecast period. Winds generally light/vrb, BCMG ESE
around 5 to 10 kt tomorrow. ISLD convection possible along east
coast tomorrow, while SCT/NMRS TSRA could develop over interior
and SW Florida including APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters
into the weekend as ridging prevails, although winds could shift
to the W-SW over the near-shore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze
develops. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms could develop each day, resulting in locally
higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  79  92 /  20  40  20  40
West Kendall     77  92  77  93 /  30  40  20  40
Opa-Locka        78  93  79  93 /  20  30  20  40
Homestead        78  91  79  91 /  20  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  79  90 /  10  30  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  80  92 /  10  30  20  40
Pembroke Pines   78  95  79  94 /  20  30  20  40
West Palm Beach  77  92  78  93 /   0  20  10  40
Boca Raton       78  92  79  93 /  10  20  10  40
Naples           78  91  79  92 /  40  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....CMP
AVIATION...SRB