Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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338 FXUS62 KMFL 061343 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 943 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Another hot and stormy summer day is ahead for South Florida. Heat index values are forecast to hit the triple digits later this morning into the afternoon with some pockets of South Florida flirting with Heat Advisory criteria briefly, particularly in Collier County where Naples is already reporting a heat index over 100. Other than the issuance of the Heat Advisory, no other major changes to the forecast heading into the afternoon. Convective activity is expected to develop again with a focus inland and over the Gulf coast this afternoon and early this evening. Slow-moving storms could bring the threat of flooding rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent to excessive lightning. 12z MFL sounding has a precipitable water sounding of nearly 2 inches which is indicative of the very moist atmosphere present across the area. Have a great Saturday morning! && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A mid level low in the western Atlantic will slowly move westward through the weekend and it will remain off the Southeast coast through the duration of the weekend. As today progresses, some mid level dry air will push into the region from the northeast along the outer portions of the mid level low. While convection chances will still remain sea breeze driven with a rather light surface wind flow in place, the drier air aloft may help to somewhat limit the coverage of showers and storms especially in northeastern areas. The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain focused over Southwest Florida, where dry air intrusion will be less and deeper moisture will be present. With a weak steering flow in place, any convection that does develop today will be slow moving, leading to the potential for localized flooding especially along the low lying and poor drainage areas across Southwest Florida. High temperatures today will generally range from around 90 across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior and west coast. With the drier air pushing into portions of South Florida, the heat indices will not be as high as they have been over the past several days, however, they could range between 100 and 105 across Southwest Florida. Heading into Sunday, the drier air across the mid levels will erode as the day progresses and the surface synoptic wind flow shifts and becomes more southerly in response to a stalled out frontal boundary located well to the north across the Southeast as well as Northern Florida. While the mid level ridge will flatten out a little bit, it will still continue to influence the weather pattern across South Florida. The sea breeze boundaries will continue to be the main component of shower and thunderstorm development as they push inland. With a light southerly wind flow in place, the highest chances of convection will be across the Lake Okeechobee region during the afternoon and evening hours. With temperatures cooling a little bit aloft due to the flattening ridge combined with the potential for some steeper mid level lapse rates, a strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon especially across the Lake Okeechobee area. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise into the lower 90s across most areas. Heat indices will generally range between 100 and 105 across most of the region during this time frame. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The weather pattern during the early to middle portion of the week remains rather uncertain and will be influenced by several factors. The first will be the evolution and direction of the mid level cut off low in the western Atlantic. The latest ensembles and global guidance remain in disagreement in the positioning of the mid level low as it slowly moves towards the Southeast coast. Some of the guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Carolina coastline towards the middle of the week, while other guidance shows a stronger mid level low pushing southwestward towards the Florida coast during this time frame. The second factor is the evolution of the potential for a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) moving towards the region from the southeast. The latest guidance shows the SAL moving into the region later on Monday and heading into Tuesday. This would help to introduce some drier air into the region which could help to limit shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame. If the SAL were to miss us and stay to the south of the region, deeper layer moisture could work into the region as the mid level low pushes closer to the area. While sea breeze boundary development will still be the main focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms, the latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps the chances of convection close to a typical summertime pattern through the middle of the week. With winds gradually becoming east to southeasterly during this time frame, the highest chances will remain over the interior and west coast each afternoon. High temperatures during the early to middle portion of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 743 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR prevails through the start of the period with light and variable winds. Light easterly flow returns later this morning, along with the chance for VCSH along East Coast sites. Confidence of impacts remains low at this time. APF is more likely to see SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon. Convection should diminish late evening into the early overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the local waters today. These winds will become southerly heading into the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of next week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into the early portion of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 80 92 80 / 30 10 50 20 West Kendall 92 77 92 78 / 50 10 50 20 Opa-Locka 93 80 93 80 / 30 10 50 20 Homestead 91 79 91 80 / 50 10 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 50 20 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 92 81 / 20 10 50 20 Pembroke Pines 94 79 94 80 / 30 10 50 20 West Palm Beach 92 78 93 79 / 20 10 40 20 Boca Raton 92 79 93 80 / 20 10 40 20 Naples 91 79 92 79 / 60 20 60 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ069-070. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...RAG