430
FXUS64 KMEG 060436
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Updated to end the Heat Advisory in north Mississippi. We should
be drier and not quite as hot over the weekend as a broad trough
shifts over the middle Mississippi River Valley with showers and
thunderstorms returning early next week. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty in the forecast by midweek, largely dependent on where
the remnants of Beryl track. However, it is unlikely that it
would pose any other threat than some heavy rain if it does make
its way into the Midsouth.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue through
Sunday. A wet and cool pattern will kick off early next week as the
remnants of Hurricane Beryl make its way across the southeastern
United States.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A shortwave trough is currently stretched from Kentucky, through
Middle Tennessee and into north Mississippi. This shortwave is
generating convection in central Mississippi as it interacts with an
outflow boundary. This convection is producing explosive cloud tops
(depicted on GOES satellite imagery) and increasing cloud cover
across north Mississippi. This extra cloud cover has been able to
keep heat indices at or just below 105 degrees. Mid and high level
clouds will push east as a reinforcing cold front, that is just
northwest of the Missouri Bootheel, will cross the region this
afternoon. Once the clouds do clear out, heat indices may climb in
the later hours of daytime heating. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect for our bottom tier of counties in north Mississippi until
8 PM.

These two frontal boundaries will aid in keeping low PoPs in the
forecast across north Mississippi until it clears the area by
tomorrow morning. Residing behind the front, is a brief period of
cooler conditions with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s
beginning on Saturday. Zonal flow will keep conditions dry
briefly.

Sunday brings the return of rain chances across north Mississippi as
the current forecast of Hurricane Beryl has it making landfall near
Brownsville Texas. Showers and thunderstorms will ride on a plume of
tropical moisture through central Mississippi and may clip our
southern tier of counties in Mississippi. Soon after making
landfall, Hurricane Beryl looks to interact with a trough. The
interaction will cause enough lift to push remnants towards the Mid-
South potentially as early as Monday night into Tuesday morning.
While rain chances look to be above normal, temperatures will remain
below normal for this time period. Uncertainty remains high on
timing, intensity, and impacts for the Mid-South in association with
the Mid-South, but this is something to keep your eye on.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VRF conditions will continue to prevail, as a surface high
pressure builds over the Mid-South this weekend. Light, northerly
winds will begin to shift eastward moving into early Sunday
morning.

ACH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ACH