538
FXUS64 KMEG 061124
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
624 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Following the passage of a weak cold front on Friday, a welcome
break from humidity is in store for the Midsouth today. High
temperatures will prevail near normal over north Mississippi, and
around 3 degrees below normal over the remainder of the Midsouth.

Warmer temperatures are forecast for Sunday, followed by increasing
humidity and a return of rain chances on Monday. Rain chances
will increase by midweek, as the remnants of tropical system Beryl
lift through the Midsouth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

In a break from the past several days, no heat headlines have been
issued for any portion of the Midsouth today. Dewpoints will
prevail in the upper 60s to lower 70s, following the passage of a
weak cold front on Friday. Under weak southwest flow aloft,
similar conditions are expected Sunday, but with lower 90s
building back north through all the Midsouth. Despite the warmer
temps, heat indices should prevail below 105.

For Monday, a northern branch longwave trough over the plains will
remain nearly stationary, maintaining southwesterly flow aloft over
the Midsouth. This will provide steering flow for the remnants of
Beryl, which is forecast to make landfall on the Texas coast
Monday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, rainfall from Beryl will
lift from the Arklamiss into the Midsouth. This rainfall will
likely continue through Wednesday, but forecast confidence is
limited by model spread with respect to intensity and timing.
There is agreement on available moisture however, with most of
the guidance depicting PWAT peaking at around 2.5 inches during
the midweek - near the 99th percentile for July.

Following the exit of Beryl`s remnants, a typical summer pattern
will likely settle in. Rain chances will continue, mainly during
the daytime, and aided by a weakness in upper level ridging over
the MS River Valley.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

No major aviation impacts as VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be out of the north to
northeast, eventually shifting to the east.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JPR