619
FXUS64 KMEG 070323
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1023 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Brief cool down continues through the afternoon, with temperatures
returning to their seasonal normals Sunday and Monday. Forecast
from Tuesday onward remains largely dependent on the eventual path
of Beryl, but rain chances continue to increase across the Mid-
South for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered clouds continue across the Mid-South this afternoon,
aiding to keep temps a bit on the cooler side than previously
forecast. As such, have lowered temps a bit for the rest of the
afternoon as clearing likely will not occur until into the evening
hours. Area will remain under southwest flow wedged between a
strengthening ridge to our east and deepening upper-level trough
to our west. Will continue to see slow WAA to the area Sunday and
Monday, with temps rising back into the low to mid 90s. Not going
to rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two across north Mississippi
on Sunday, but coverage will remain fairly limited. PoPs will
begin to increase by Monday as a warm front lifts towards the
area.

Beyond Monday, things do become quite uncertain as our ultimate
forecast will remain largely dependent on the eventual path of
the remnants of Beryl. At this time, Beryl is forecast to make
landfall along the Texas Coastline Monday morning and eventually
lift to the northeast through the Ohio River Valley with the
upper-level trough pattern. Beryl will likely become post-tropical
by the time it moves through the Mid-South, but some winds and
rain will remain possible. Right now winds look to remain fairly
mild, with maybe an occasional stronger wind gust or two (15 to
20 mph). As for our rainfall, rain chances will likely increase
Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, if you have any outdoor plans
Tuesday and especially Wednesday, it may be a good idea to have
alternate indoor plans. Total QPF through the event looks to be
around 2 to 3+ inches, but this will likely fluctuate in the days
to come. A faster path for Beryl would likely lead to less
rainfall, while a slower path could lead to higher amounts.
Certainly an interesting forecast heading into next week and will
continue to see what the guidance has in store.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR, just a wind forecast, generally 5kt or less. Winds will slowly
veer through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JDS