Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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089 FXUS64 KMEG 011628 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Weather conditions are much more pleasant across the Mid-South today as drier air and cooler temperatures have settled over the region behind yesterday`s cold front. Current temperatures range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s with dewpoints in the 60s, resulting in heat indices approximately 20-25 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. There are some mid-level clouds streaming southeast across the Ozarks, but they continue to erode as they approach I-40 and run into the subsidence provided by the subtropical ridge. No noteworthy changes were made to the previous forecast other than to tweak dewpoints down just slightly this afternoon in anticipation of vertical mixing. MJ && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Conditions today will be tolerable as dry air pushes into the Mid-South. Heat headlines will likely not be needed until Wednesday, when an upper level trough orients over the region. Rain chances return Wednesday with daily rounds of showers and storms possible through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A break from hot and muggy conditions will be evident today as dry air filters into the Mid-South behind a cold front. Afternoon temperatures will range from the low 80s to low 90s, providing the area with some much needed relief. Unfortunately, these conditions will not last long as southerly winds return on Tuesday. By Wednesday, a 596 dam ridge will center over the Mid-South, allowing afternoon temperatures to reach the mid 90s. This, combined with dewpoints in the 70s, may necessitate heat headlines both Wednesday and Thursday. However, long term guidance continues to support several shortwaves impacting the Mid-South beginning late Wednesday into Thursday. At this time, rain chances begin to increase with areas north of I-40 possessing the greatest probabilities for rainfall. Any precipitation that does occur Wednesday or Thursday will be scattered in nature, so don`t anticipate an areawide washout for the July 4th Holiday. Greater chances for widespread rainfall exist Friday and Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. Most recent LREF guidance paints only a 10-20% chance of severe weather during this time. However, precipitable water values near the 90th percentile may produce a flooding threat as storms move through the region. Otherwise, expect slightly cooler temperatures this weekend behind the aforementioned front. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions continue throughout the TAF period. Northeast winds around 10kts through much of the day. Around to after 00Z, winds will begin to calm through the remainder of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CMA