Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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107 FXUS64 KMEG 072159 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 459 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 454 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Quick update to account for the band of light showers moving through north Mississippi. Showers should dissipate over the next few hours with the loss of daytime heating. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Increasing thunderstorm chances begin tomorrow as the remnants of Beryl will move through the area on Tuesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are in the forecast for Monday and again on Tuesday, with localized flooding possible especially across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially on Tuesday for locations along and north of Interstate 40. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Beginning to see an increase in our cloud coverage across north MS with some scattered showers in the mix. Coverage of showers should wane over the next few hours, but cloudiness will continue to spread northward tonight and into tomorrow. Have warmed a bit more today than yesterday with much of the area already into the upper 80s and a few locations in the low 90s. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side again tomorrow, especially east of the MS River where low to mid 90s are expected. Could see a few locations across N. MS reach around 105 for heat index values, but there is some question if cloud coverage and convection will spoil this so no heat headlines at this time. Tomorrow through at least the first half of Wednesday our forecast will be largely driven by the eventual path of the remnants of Beryl. Beryl is expected to make landfall along the Texas Coastline tomorrow and not make it too far inland before it begins lifting northward along a deepening trough axis across the Plains. Latest model guidance has sped things up a bit, with the remnant low pressure likely moving just to our west into Tuesday. By that point it will likely take more of a northeasterly track into the Ohio River Valley. So what does this mean for the Mid-South? Well, even more moisture will funnel into the area tomorrow, with shower / thunderstorm chances increasing slowly through the day and into the evening hours. This moisture will remain through Tuesday, with the highest PoPs likely Tuesday afternoon. There does appear to be multiple potential rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms as the low pressure system moves towards our area. With any post- tropical systems, we will always need to keep an eye on three things: heavy rain, winds, and tornado potential. In terms of strong to severe weather potential, shear values will not begin to become concerning until overnight Monday into Tuesday. So, for most of the day on Monday think the main concern will be damaging winds if a storm or two misbehave. Small tornado threat will increase overnight if there is any convection as the low draws closer to the area. Now for Tuesday, Tuesday afternoon looks a bit more concerning than Monday in my opinion, as the remnant low of Beryl moves through / just north of the area. We are forecast to remain fairly destabilized and with the nearby low and 700mb jet aloft, this could spell some damaging winds as well as a tornado or two for locations along and north of I-40. This forecast will remain largely dependent on the eventual track of the low, so there is still a lot of uncertainty with what the area could see as a result. When all is said and done, there will likely be a sharp cutoff between areas that see 2+ inches of rainfall versus those that see less than half an inch. Generally locations west of the MS River and north of I-40 will have the greatest chance of seeing higher rainfall amounts, while those south of I-40 especially across N. MS will likely miss out on the higher rainfall totals. If there were to be flooding issues, NE Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel would be the most likely locations. Remnants of Beryl will move out of the area late Wednesday into Thursday, leaving behind a somewhat typical summertime pattern across the Mid-South. Highs will return to the mid 90s with afternoon thunderstorm chances increasing into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. As tropical moisture surges into the area, a few showers are possible at MEM, JBR, and TUP. Guidance has some disagreement in coverage and timing, so PROB30s were introduced. MEM looks to have the most isolated coverage and less likely to impact the terminal, so a VCSH was introduced. As moisture continues to move in cloud decks will lower and gradually fill in. Convection looks to begin just outside of this TAF period. Winds will remain light through the period. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...DNM