297
FXUS64 KMAF 060834
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
334 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Current radar shows convection continuing from southeastern New
Mexico south to I-10. Hi-Res models are having a hard time handling
this precipitation with the NAM perhaps doing the best job showing
it moving south into Texas before dissipating later this morning.
It`s good to see Eddy and Culberson counties getting the rainfall as
they have missed out on earlier rounds of rain the past several
weeks.

Widely scattered showers and storms are expected to develop again
this afternoon, mainly in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains, before
moving into the adjacent plains. Easterly winds will advect in
modified air keeping temperatures below normal for another day
though temps will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Overnight
lows drop to near normal Sunday morning under clear skies and light
winds. Sunday winds become south to southwesterly ahead of a cold
front expected to arrive Sunday night. These winds will advect in
hotter temps and highs will reach the upper 90s to low 100s across
much of the area. Drier air eliminates rain chances on Sunday.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

After Sunday`s hot day, a cold front quickly surges back into the
area for Monday, once again providing a break from the summertime
heat. Those in the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico will enjoy
high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s while those along/south of I-
10 should still roast in the upper 90s and triple digits. In
addition to the typical storms over the Davis Mountains, scattered
thunderstorms are anticipated along the front as it pushes through
the northern half of the area. Any thunderstorm will likely sustain
through the overnight hours thanks to the front. Tuesday likely ends
up being the "coolest" day of the long term in the post-frontal set
up. Beyond Tuesday, the broad long-wave troughing across the central
US starts to slide eastward, allowing upper ridging to slide a
little closer into the Four Corners. This kicks off a gradual
warming trend that has everyone back into the mid to upper 90s by
the end of the week.

While for a short time it may have looked like some appreciable rain
chances were coming this week with the upcoming front on Monday,
unfortunately, it looks like it`s going to generally be "one and
done" for most with the best rain chances for Monday into Monday
night. Beyond this, the front looks like push all the way down into
Mexico for Tuesday, returning the storm chances back to the classic
locations of the Davis Mountains and western high terrain each
afternoon through the remainder of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

TS continues near CNM and is expected to diminish over the next
couple of hours. Otherwise VFR conditions and light southeast
winds will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  73 102  72 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 93  73 104  71 /  30  10   0  10
Dryden                   97  74 101  75 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            95  74 102  75 /  30  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  70  96  67 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                    90  70 101  67 /  20  10   0  10
Marfa                    90  63  96  64 /  50  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     92  73 100  73 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                   92  74 101  74 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                     95  75 104  76 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10