278
FXUS64 KMAF 071723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today we are sandwiched between fronts, with south to southwesterly
winds advecting in the hottest temperatures of the forecast. Highs
will exceed 100 degrees for many locations and anyone along the Rio
Grande and Pecos River valleys will have to be alert for heat stress
as temperatures approach Heat Advisory.

An upper trough over the Great Plains will send a cold front into
the area Monday bringing a quick return of cooler temperatures.
Highs will depend on the speed and timing of the cold front, which
will in turn depend on the strength and speed of Beryl in the Gulf
of Mexico. Northerly flow on the western side of the tropical storm
will help pull the cold front south so the faster and stronger the
storm is, the faster the front will move through. Believe the front
will make it through faster than the NBM guidance suggests since it
normally is a bit slow, and adding in the help front the tropics
should only speed up the timing. Lift and moisture advection behind
the front should increase rain chances and bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to much of West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
Modest rainfall amounts of up to a quarter of an inch are expected
with some isolated heavier amounts in the stronger storms possible.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Long-wave upper troughing that has been present across the north-
central US through the weekend finally starts lifting northeastward
come Tuesday into Wednesday. This allows upper ridging to slowly
meander towards the Four Corners in the latter half of the week.

Following Monday`s front that, a few showers/storms may linger into
early Tuesday morning, but ultimately the effect of the front will
mostly be felt by fairly pleasant high temperatures (for July at
least...) in the low 90s for most on Tuesday. From there, as
thickness slowly increases as the upper ridge slides closer, a
gradual warming trend has temperatures back to the upper 90s and
triple digits for the lowest elevations by the end of the week.
Scattered thunderstorms could stretch out into the plains in
addition to the mountains. As subsidence slowly builds throughout
the week, storm chances get more and more confined to the western
high terrain.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR will prevail through the period. Will need to monitor for TS
to our north near LUB later this afternoon as they could travel
into the area. Otherwise, a front is expected by the end of the
TAF period with winds turning more easterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  72  85  70 /  10  10  30  30
Carlsbad                104  71  84  69 /   0   0  50  50
Dryden                  101  75 100  73 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton           102  75  95  70 /   0   0  30  40
Guadalupe Pass           96  68  79  63 /   0   0  40  40
Hobbs                   102  67  79  65 /  10  10  50  50
Marfa                    96  65  92  62 /  20  10  50  30
Midland Intl Airport    101  73  85  69 /  10  10  30  40
Odessa                  101  73  85  70 /  10  10  30  40
Wink                    105  77  91  70 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...29